Zarzis vs Stade Tunisien: match statistics

Stade Tunisien are clear favorites: they sit 3rd in the table versus Zarzis in 10th, with a record of 12 wins, 9 draws and only 2 losses this season, while Zarzis have 7 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. Goal difference also favors the visitors (28 scored and 8 conceded vs 20 scored and 24 conceded). Recent form over the last five matches is markedly different — Stade have scored 10 goals in their last 5 and average 1.6 points per game, whereas Zarzis have scored just 1 goal and average 0.4 points per game. The visitors’ defense looks particularly solid on the road: they concede on average 0.45 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in 55% of away games, while the hosts concede 1.00 goal on average at home and have only 36% clean sheets. Zarzis generate slightly more shots at home (9.88 vs 8.7) and higher possession (59% vs 57%), and their home xG is 1.28 versus the visitors’ 1.18 away xG, but the hosts struggle with finishing — shot conversion only 5% and an average of 0.64 goals per home game, with 55% of home matches without scoring. Considering the visitors’ higher finishing rate (13% shot conversion), superior defensive metrics and vastly better form (last 5: 10 goals vs 1), I forecast a Stade Tunisien victory.

I back 'No' — no both teams to score. Zarzis has a season clean sheet rate of 83% and BTTS just 17%, conceding only 0.25 goals per match on average, which strongly limits the likelihood of a Goal/Goal. In the last 5 fixtures Zarzis scored a total of 1 goal (0.2 per match) while Stade Tunisien scored 10 goals (2.0 per match), so only the visitors are currently dangerous offensively. Season xG shows 1.47 xG for Zarzis vs 1.18 for Stade and xG against 0.91 for the home side vs 1.17 for the visitors, suggesting that even when chances occur the home team rarely concedes. Given the league’s low BTTS rate of 27% and a high clean sheet percentage of 90%, I assign probabilities of 78% for 'No' and 22% for 'Yes'.

The xG-based projection estimates about 1.32 expected goals for Zarzis (home xG 1.47 vs Stade’s defense allowing 1.17 xG) and 1.05 for Stade Tunisien (their xG 1.18 vs Zarzis defense allowing 0.91 xG), totaling ~2.37 goals. With this total, a Poisson distribution implies the probability of Over 1.5 goals is roughly 69%, Over 2.5 about ~42%, and Over 3.5 around 22%. Additionally, Zarzis averages 1.42 goals and 5.55 shots on target, while Stade Tunisien has averaged 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches and 60% of their games have gone Over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of goals in this fixture. Conversely, both teams have low BTTS rates (17% for the home side and 27% for the away), suggesting goals may be one-sided and limiting the appeal of the 3.5 line. Therefore the strongest signal from the available numbers is a bet on Over 1.5.

Zarzis has very strong home statistics: 67% wins at their own ground, averaging 1.42 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded per match. They led at the break in 6 matches (50%) and have never been losing at half-time (0%), keeping a first-half clean sheet in 92% of cases. The hosts also have superior xG — 1.47 versus the visitors’ 1.18 — and 5.55 shots on target compared to Stade Tunisien’s 3.5, which confirms control and an advantage in chance creation. Considering lead conversion and the hosts’ seasonal 83% clean sheets, the most likely scenario is Zarzis leading at the break and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1 ~50%). Alternatives are draw/draw (~33%) or a draw turned into a home win (~17%), while options with the visitors leading are practically negligible given the hosts’ 0% home losses.