Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha: match statistics

Zbrojovka Brno in their last 5 matches have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws (wdwdw), scoring 10 goals and conceding 3, which gives an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match. Sparta Praha in their last 5 fixtures have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (wldww), scoring 8 goals and allowing 4, i.e. an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per match. Over the last 5 matches the hosts average 2.2 points per match versus 2.0 points per match for the visitors, and the hosts remain unbeaten in this period (3-2-0) while Sparta recorded one defeat. I see Zbrojovka’s edge in superior offensive efficiency (10 vs 8 goals) and a better defence (3 vs 4 conceded), which translates into a higher points return and no defeats. Based on this I estimate a 55% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Sparta victory.

Based on the last 5 matches, Zbrojovka have BTTS in 60% of games and Sparta in 40%, giving a moderate signal in favor of both teams scoring. In the last 5 rounds Zbrojovka average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Sparta score 1.6 and concede 0.8, so both teams are producing goals with a clear offensive edge for the hosts. xG values also indicate offensive potential: Zbrojovka xG is 1.51, Sparta xG 1.7, and xG against is 0.89 for Zbrojovka and 1.34 for Sparta, suggesting Sparta creates plenty of chances against the home defence. The goal totals over the last 5 matches (10 scored and 3 conceded by Zbrojovka; 8 scored and 4 conceded by Sparta) confirm that at least one goal from each side is realistic. For these reasons I rate BTTS - Yes as more likely (65%) versus 35% for No.

In the last 5 matches Zbrojovka Brno scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and Sparta Praha scored 8 goals (1.6 per match), giving a combined average of 3.6 goals. Aggregate xG over the last 5 matches is 1.51 for the home side and 1.70 for the visitors (total 3.21), which confirms the offensive potential of both teams. Defensively Zbrojovka conceded an average of 0.6 goals and Sparta 0.8 goals in their last 5 matches, so both sides are offering opponents goal-scoring opportunities. Although the percentage of matches over 2.5 goals in the last 5 games is 40% for each team, the combined goals average of 3.6 and total xG of 3.21 favor goals over 2.5. Based on this I recommend the 'over' on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal (I estimate Over 2.5 at ~72%, Over 1.5 at ~92% and Over 3.5 at ~44%).

Zbrojovka Brno led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in all 5 (100%), scoring 3 goals by half-time (0.6 on average). Sparta were level at half-time in 4 of 5 matches (80%), scoring 5 first-half goals in total (1.0 on average) and conceding 0.4 goals at half-time on average, so they rarely went into the interval in front. In the second half Brno average 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (last 5), while Sparta average 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, which suggests the home side have an edge in maintaining or extending a lead after the break. Considering also Brno’s 60% win rate in their last 5 home matches and Sparta’s 20% away loss rate, the most likely and strongest signal is Brno leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).