Zbrojovka Brno vs Zlín: match statistics

Zbrojovka Brno head into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 10 goals in that run, while Zlín have lost all 5 of their matches, scoring just 3 goals. The hosts average 1.5 goals per home game, whereas the visitors concede as many as 3 goals per away match and have lost 100% of their away fixtures so far. Brno average 5 shots on target per match compared with Zlín’s 3.5, and they also enjoy greater possession, recording 41% against their opponents’ 36%. The hosts’ defence is not flawless, as it allows opponents an xG of 1.83, but Zlín’s poor finishing and five-match losing streak point towards Brno taking advantage of home-field superiority. The visitors average 1.5 goals scored away from home, so a draw remains a realistic alternative, but a home win is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Zlín have scored just 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 fixtures and lost all 5 of those games. Zbrojovka Brno are currently much more solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.8 goals across their last five appearances, while Zlín’s opponents managed only 1.16 xG on average against them. The hosts should nevertheless have a good chance of scoring, as Zlín have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 2.0 per game—and have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. Brno averaged 2.0 goals during this period, with an xG of 1.28, so the most likely scenario is that the hosts find the net while the visitors remain scoreless. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at 64%, Zlín’s poor attacking efficiency clearly reduces the chances of both teams scoring.

Zbrojovka have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Zlín have conceded 2.0 per game over the same period, giving the hosts a clear chance of scoring at least once. At the same time, Zlín’s away attack has scored just 0.6 goals per game across their last five matches, while Brno have conceded 0.8, so the visitors’ attacking potential remains limited. The xG figures are more balanced than the extreme results from this small sample: Brno have generated 1.28 xG and Zlín 1.16, while their opponents have been allowed 1.39 and 1.55 xG respectively, pointing to an overall expectation of around 2.55 goals. Both teams had Over 2.5 goals in 40% of their last five matches, compared with the league average of 57%, which does not support a highly open game. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as this line only loses with at least four goals, while Zlín’s limited finishing reduces the likelihood of such a high-scoring outcome.

Zbrojovka Brno are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Zlín have lost 4 of their last 5 games, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 60%; the first-half goal difference stands at +2 and -2, respectively. Brno average 1.4 goals after the break, while Zlín concede 1.0 in this period, which favours the hosts maintaining or extending their lead. Additionally, Zlín concede an average of 3.0 goals per away match, while their defensive expected goals against stands at 1.58, compared with Brno’s 1.09 xG created. The most likely outcome therefore remains a Brno lead at half-time followed by a victory at the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT 1/1 selection.