Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica: match statistics

Radnik Surdulica sit 7th, while Zemun are 14th, and the gap is further highlighted by their current form: the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals in that run, whereas the hosts have lost all 5 of their games, scoring just once. Zemun have a serious finishing problem at home, averaging 0.50 goals and failing to score in 75% of their matches. The hosts’ defence allows opponents an average xG of 2.58, clearly higher than the 1.88 recorded by Radnik away from home. The visitors are also far from convincing on the road, losing 67% of such matches and conceding an average of 2.33 goals, which makes a draw a realistic option. Although neither team have yet won a league match in their respective home and away fixtures, Radnik’s significantly better current attacking output points towards a narrow victory.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Zemun’s current lack of attacking output: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. Radnik recorded BTTS in 80% of matches over the same period and averaged 1.6 goals, but their opponent conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game and allowed opponents an xG of 2.33. The hosts do have favourable full-season statistics, averaging 1.75 goals scored and an xG of 1.91, but five consecutive defeats and a clear decline in finishing efficiency reduce the reliability of these figures ahead of this match. Radnik kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches, while the league-wide BTTS rate stands at just 40%; therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.

Zemun averaged 1.75 goals at home, while Radnik conceded as many as 2.33 goals per away match, which clearly supports the home side scoring. Zemun’s attacking potential is confirmed by an average xG of 1.91 and 5.0 shots on target, while Radnik’s defensive xG is a high 1.88. However, the hosts’ recent form has been poor, scoring just 1 goal in their last five matches, so the forecast does not indicate a strong advantage for Over 2.5 goals. Radnik averaged 1.6 goals in their last five fixtures, while both teams conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period. The Over 1.5 goals line has the strongest statistical support: at least two goals were scored in 75% of Zemun’s home matches and 67% of Radnik’s away matches.

The strongest current signal points to Radnik: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaged 1.6 goals, and held a lead at the break in 80% of those games. Zemun have lost all 5 of their last matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game during that period, and were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases. Particularly significant is the visitors’ advantage before the break: they averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded none, while the hosts recorded only 0.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Season statistics at Zemun’s stadium are more favorable to the home side, who won 75% of such matches, but their current five-match losing streak clearly reduces the reliability of this trend. A scenario in which Radnik lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until full-time is therefore the most likely, although a draw at the break followed by an away win remains a significant alternative.