Zhejiang FC vs Chengdu Better City FC: match statistics

Chengdu Better City FC lead the league and have a clearly superior overall record this season, with 13 wins and just 3 defeats compared with Zhejiang FC’s 8 victories and 8 losses. However, home advantage is significant: Zhejiang win 50% of their matches at home, averaging 1.78 xG and 6.1 shots on target per game, while Chengdu average 1.45 xG and 3.45 shots on target away from home. The visitors’ defence looks slightly more reliable, as they concede an average of 1.27 goals away from home against 1.32 xG, whereas Zhejiang allow opponents 1.47 xG at home. The league leaders’ recent form nevertheless reduces their chances of taking all three points: Chengdu have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing four and losing one, while scoring just 7 goals. Zhejiang have scored 10 goals during this period but also conceded 10, making a hard-fought draw the most likely outcome, probably with both teams finding the net.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Zhejiang have recorded BTTS in 55% of their matches this season, while Chengdu have done so in 64%, compared with a league average of 63%. Recent form is even more compelling: BTTS occurred in 100% of Zhejiang’s last five matches and 80% of Chengdu’s, with the teams conceding 2.0 and 1.6 goals per game respectively. The hosts create plenty of chances, posting a season xG of 2.07 and averaging 7.0 shots on target, while Chengdu have an xG of 1.45 and score an average of 1.55 goals per match. Zhejiang’s defence has been solid over the season, conceding an average of 0.73 goals, but their last five matches brought as many as 10 goals conceded and an xG against of 1.86. Chengdu have kept a clean sheet in only 18% of their matches, so the hosts’ strong attack should find the net, while Zhejiang’s current defensive vulnerability increases the visitors’ chances of responding. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the recommended selection.

Zhejiang average 2.27 goals and create chances worth 2.07 xG at home, while Chengdu concede an average of 1.27 goals away from home, with 1.32 xG allowed. The visitors have the potential to respond, as they score an average of 1.55 goals, while Zhejiang conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game across their last five matches. The 1.5 line was covered in 73% of matches involving both teams, and at least three goals were scored in 80% of Zhejiang’s last five games. In addition, both teams scored in 100% and 80% of their respective last five matches, clearly reducing the risk of a low-scoring game. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.03 goals gives this line by far the highest probability.

Zhejiang have a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 55% of their matches, averaging 1.00 goals scored and just 0.18 conceded before half-time, while Chengdu scored only 0.45 goals before the interval. The hosts have also been stronger over the season as a whole, winning 64% of their matches with an average of 2.27 goals scored, whereas Chengdu won 55% of their away games and conceded an average of 1.27 goals. Zhejiang’s advantage is further supported by the quality of their chances: their average xG stands at 2.07 compared with 1.45 for their opponents, while their shots on target average 7.00 against 3.45. However, the visitors’ recent form calls for a more cautious assessment, as they have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches and have not led at half-time in any of them. The most likely scenario is therefore that Zhejiang will capitalise on their advantage from the outset and maintain their lead to secure a full-time victory.