Zhejiang FC vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

Zhejiang FC has a clear creative advantage at home: on average 56% possession, 16.33 shots and 6 shots on target per match versus 46% possession, 11.75 shots and 4.5 on target for Dalian Zhixing. This translates into a higher home xG for the hosts (1.78 vs 1.38) and a higher average goals at home (1.44 vs 1.13 away), although both teams score slightly below their xG (Zhejiang ~0.34 goals below xG, Dalian ~0.25). Defensively the edge is with Zhejiang: they concede on average 1.33 goals at home, while Dalian concede 2.25 on the road; the visitors also have a negative away goal difference -9 and a 63% away loss rate. In Dalian’s favor is a high league position (3rd) and better form over the last 5 matches (9 goals and 1.6 pts/match vs the hosts’ 8 goals and 1.0 pts/match), so a draw or an away win cannot be ruled out. Considering the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and Dalian’s relatively weak away performances, I tip a home victory as the most likely outcome.

Season BTTS rate is 60% for Zhejiang and 63% for Dalian, while league-wide BTTS occurs in 65% of matches; this is a strong signal that both teams frequently concede and score. Zhejiang averages 1.9 goals per match (xG 1.83), registers 16.6 shots with 5.4 on target, and concedes 1.4 goals per season, so the home side generates numerous chances. Dalian has only 1.13 goals per season (xG 1.38) but concedes as many as 2.25 goals per match, and in the last 5 fixtures the away team has xG 2.03 and averaged 1.8 goals — while Zhejiang has conceded 2.0 goals on average in their last 5 matches, which increases the visitors’ scoring probability. Additionally, both teams have had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, and the % of matches over 2.5 goals is 70% (Zhejiang) and 63% (Dalian), indicating an open game with goals at both ends. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is BTTS - Yes — I assess the probability at 80% versus 20% for No.

The xG-based model projects about 1.69 goals for Zhejiang (xG_for 1.83 vs opponent xG_against 1.55) and 1.27 for Dalian (xG_for 1.38 vs home xG_against 1.16), totaling ≈2.96 goals. This sum is above the 2.5 line and aligns with seasonal over indicators: Zhejiang has Over2.5 in 70% of matches, Dalian 63%, and the league average is 59%. Both teams also show high percentages over 1.5 (80% and 75%) and BTTS of 60% and 63% respectively; in the last 5 meetings both sides had BTTS in 100% of games, which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams. With an xG of 2.96 and strong seasonal signals, the strongest and most reliable play is the over line at 1.5; Over 2.5 also has solid support (≈72%), whereas Over 3.5 is less likely (≈35%).

Zhejiang holds a clear advantage: they average 1.9 goals per match versus Dalian’s 1.13, the home xG is 1.83 versus 1.38 for the away side, and at home they average 2.1 points per match with a 70% win rate (Dalian: 0.88 points per match and 25% wins). Despite this, Zhejiang led at the break in only 20% of games and were trailing at half-time in 50%, which indicates frequent unfavorable standings after the first 45 minutes. The second half is decisive: the hosts scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 (away team 2), they average 1.4 goals after the break versus Dalian’s 0.63 and statistically win 80% of second halves, so they often mount a turnaround. Additionally, Zhejiang register more shots (16.6 vs 11.75) and have higher finishing efficiency (11% vs 10%), increasing the likelihood of seizing the initiative after half-time. Therefore the strongest signal is the 2/1 scenario — the visitors lead at the break, but Zhejiang stage a comeback and ultimately win.