Zhenys vs Atyrau: match statistics

Zhenys sit 8th and win 46% of their home matches, while Atyrau, 14th in the table, win just 17% of their away games. The hosts average 1.23 goals at home from an xG of 1.37, while the visitors score just 0.67 goals per away match from an xG of 0.96. Zhenys’ advantage in chance creation is also reflected in their average of 4.23 shots on target at home, compared with Atyrau’s 3 away from home. In their last five matches, Zhenys have won twice and conceded 8 goals, while Atyrau have won once and conceded 9, which tips the balance in favour of the hosts despite their defensive uncertainty. The risk of a draw remains significant, as Atyrau have drawn half of their away matches, while Zhenys have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their home games.

BTTS - No is more likely, as Zhenys average 0.77 goals per match and Atyrau 0.67; the teams failed to score in 38% and 42% of their matches, respectively. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in just 40% of Zhenys’ games and 20% of Atyrau’s, reinforcing the case against BTTS. However, caution is warranted: over this period, the teams conceded an average of 1.6 and 1.8 goals, so either side may still find chances to score. Even so, their season scoring averages and the low BTTS frequency in recent matches point towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Zhenys score an average of 0.77 goals per match this season, while Atyrau average 0.67, so both teams have limited attacking output. Matches involving Zhenys have featured no more than 3 goals in 85% of cases, compared with 100% of Atyrau’s matches, providing a strong signal for Under 3.5 goals. The 2.5 line has also been exceeded infrequently: in 31% of the home side’s matches and 17% of the visitors’ matches. However, the last five games point to weaker defending from both teams—Zhenys conceded an average of 1.6 goals, while Atyrau conceded 1.8—making Under 3.5 goals a safer choice than Under 2.5. With a projected total of 2.09 goals, this line best combines a clear statistical edge with room for the recent increase in goals conceded.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Atyrau failed to score in the first half in any of those games. Across the full period analysed, Zhenys average 0.31 goals before the break and Atyrau 0.33, making an early lead for either side less likely. The likelihood of the score remaining level is supported by low scoring across full matches — the hosts average 0.77 goals and the visitors 0.67 — as well as high draw rates of 38% and 50%, respectively. Atyrau concede an average of just 0.25 goals after the break, while Zhenys score 0.46 in that half, limiting the hosts’ chances of deciding the match. The last 5 appearances do show an improvement in Zhenys’ attack, to 1.0 goal per match compared with Atyrau’s 0.6, so a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a notable alternative. However, a draw at full-time is the most likely outcome.