Zhetysu vs Altay: match statistics
Zhetysu vs Altay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Zhetysu played Altay in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 11 July 2026. Venue: Ortalıq Stadion Jetisu. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Zhetysu: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Altay: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Zhetysu scores 1.31 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Altay scores 0.69 and concedes 1.13. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Zhetysu 63%, Altay 44%. Over 2.5: Zhetysu 56%, Altay 25%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
Altay has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.16. Zhetysu: 9.8 shots per match, Altay: 10.9.
Match halves
Zhetysu: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.69. Altay: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Zhetysu: 76-90+ (6 goals). Altay: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (Zhetysu): their home defensive metrics are strong — they concede only 0.86 goals per home match on average and keep a clean sheet in 57% of home games, whereas Altay have recorded no shutouts away and concede 1.43 goals per away match. Zhetysu also have a clearly superior scoring output this season: 21 goals scored versus Altay’s 11, and at home they average 1.00 goal per game compared to Altay’s 0.71 on the road. Technically the visitors attempt more shots (11.14 vs 9.00) and more shots on target (4.29 vs 3.57), and their average away xG is 1.27 versus the home xG of 1.06 — this shows Altay create chances but suffer from a low conversion rate of 6% compared to Zhetysu’s 11%. Both teams have a similar form over the last 5 matches (1 point per game and 1-2-2 in the last five), so Zhetysu’s defensive advantage and home efficiency (home goal difference +1) will be decisive. I expect a low-scoring match with the home side winning.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis indicates BTTS - Yes is more likely: Zhetysu has a season BTTS rate of 33% versus Altay 57%, but in the last 5 matches Zhetysu’s BTTS is 80% compared to Altay’s 60%, suggesting increased probability of both teams scoring. Both sides produce similar offensive xG (1.26 and 1.27), while xG against is 1.53 for Zhetysu and 1.44 for Altay, meaning both teams regularly concede scoring opportunities. Season-long goals per game are low (0.67 vs 0.71), but in the last 5 matches the teams averaged 1.8 and 1.2 goals respectively, and Zhetysu concedes 2.0 goals on average over the last 5, which reduces the likelihood of a clean sheet for either side (Altay has 0% clean sheets this season, Zhetysu 44%). Considering combined offensive pressure (xG ≈2.53) and recent form (80% BTTS for the home side), I favor the ‘Yes’ scenario and price it at 70% vs 30% for ‘No’.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects roughly 2.75 goals: (Zhetysu xG_for 1.26 + Altay xG_against 1.44)/2 = 1.35 for the home side and (Altay xG_for 1.27 + Zhetysu xG_against 1.53)/2 = 1.40 for the visitors. Seasonal goals averages are low (Zhetysu 0.67, Altay 0.71), but in the last 5 matches Zhetysu has averaged 1.8 goals and Altay 1.2 — totaling 3.0 goals per match (9+6 in five games), which supports a higher-scoring outcome. Both teams average ~10.7–11.1 shots and 4.0–4.29 shots on target with a conversion rate of 6%, and Altay has no clean sheets this season (0%), increasing the likelihood of goals. From these inputs we estimate ~76% chance for Over 1.5, ~52% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (highest probability and lowest risk), Over 2.5 is only marginally favored, and Over 3.5 is too risky.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal concerns a draw at half-time: the home team were level at the break in 78% of home matches, and the average goals for the hosts by half-time is only 0.56, with the hosts scoring on average 0.11 goals in the first half, indicating a high proportion of 0:0 or HT draws. After the break the advantage shifts to the visitors — in their last 5 matches the visitors averaged 1.4 points in second halves and won the second half in 40% of cases, while the hosts averaged just 0.8 points in that period and registered no second-half wins. The xG for both teams is almost identical (1.26 versus 1.27), so endings and finishing will be decisive; this is confirmed by the visitors scoring 4 goals in minutes 76–90, which suggests their second-half activity. Based on this, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a visitors' victory at full-time (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Zhetysu | Altay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Zhetysu is 90% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - Zhetysu · 0.69 goals / match - Altay
Altay is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Zhetysu · 1.13 goals / match - Altay
Zhetysu scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while Altay keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
Altay scores in 50% of matches (8 of 16 matches), while Zhetysu keeps a clean sheet in 31% (5 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Zhetysu
Over / Under - Altay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Zhetysu is 148% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Zhetysu · 0.63 pts / match - Altay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Zhetysu - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Altay - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Zhetysu
Altay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Zhetysu | Liga | Altay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.81 | 2.23 | ▼ 1.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 41% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | • 31% | 31% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 60% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | • 69% | 69% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Zhetysu 0 - 1 - 0 Altay. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Zhetysu vs Altay?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Zhetysu 0:1 Altay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Zhetysu vs Altay?
Zhetysu score 1.31 goals per game on average and Altay 0.69. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Zhetysu's matches and 44% of Altay's.
What form are Zhetysu and Altay in?
Over the last 5 games Zhetysu have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Altay 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Zhetysu vs Altay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.