Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey: match statistics
Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Zhetysu played Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Zhetysu: 1-2-1, 1.25 points/match. Yelimay Semey: 2-2-0, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Zhetysu scores 1.00 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Yelimay Semey scores 1.75 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Zhetysu 50%, Yelimay Semey 75%. Over 2.5: Zhetysu 50%, Yelimay Semey 25%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Yelimay Semey has higher xG: 1.69 vs 0.96. Zhetysu: 8.3 shots per match, Yelimay Semey: 15.0.
Match halves
Zhetysu: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75. Yelimay Semey: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.25.
Goals by minute
Zhetysu: 76-90+ (2 goals). Yelimay Semey: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win (2) because Yelimay Semey sit 3rd while Zhetysu are 9th. This season Yelimay have scored 7 goals vs Zhetysu 4; in the last 5 matches the visitors have 11 goals compared to the hosts’ 5, clearly showing an attacking edge (11>5). Away, Yelimay average 2.5 goals, 17.5 shots and 7 shots on target per game with a conversion rate around 14%, whereas Zhetysu at home average 2 shots, 0 shots on target and 0 goals — the proportion of home matches without a goal is 100%. xG reinforces this disparity: away xG for the visitors is 1.97 versus home xG for the hosts 0.3, and average points in the last 5 are 2.2 for Yelimay and 1.6 for Zhetysu. Although Zhetysu’s home stats show 0 goals conceded at home, their lack of attacking efficiency and Yelimay’s superior chance generation justify backing the visitors — implied probabilities: home 10%, draw 25%, away 65%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal comes from Yelimay: season BTTS indicator is 100% (last 5 matches 80%), they score on average 2.5 goals per season (last 5: 2.2) with xG 1.97. Zhetysu at home has season BTTS 50% and last 5 matches 40%, scoring 1.0 goals per season (last 5: 1.0), but recently concede on average 1.2 goals and their recent xG against is 1.53. The offensive gap is visible: Yelimay averages 7.0 shots on target versus Zhetysu's 3.5 and has a higher conversion rate 14% vs 8%, which increases the probability of a goal by the visitors. Additionally Zhetysu has 50% clean sheets in the season, while Yelimay has 0% clean sheets, suggesting the visitors rarely keep a match without conceding. Considering xG 1.97 vs 1.19 (visitors vs home defence), goal results 11 vs 5 in the last five matches and the visitors' offensive advantage, I assess BTTS at 78% 'Yes' vs 22% 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The averaged xG yields 1.42 for Zhetysu (1.40 xG_for vs 1.43 xG_against_away) and 1.58 for Yelimay (1.97 vs 1.19), giving a combined 3.00 expected goals. Yelimay clearly has greater attacking potential: on average 2.5 goals, 17.5 shots and 7.0 shots on target at a 14% conversion rate, while Zhetysu records 1.0 goal, 12.5 shots and 3.5 on target with an 8% conversion. Season-long both teams have had a goal in 100% of matches, and both-teams-to-score occurrences are 100% for Yelimay and 50% for Zhetysu, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. A Poisson model with lambda=3.00 gives roughly an 80% chance for Over 1.5, ~58% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most confident signal is Over 1.5. I recommend backing Over 1.5 given the high xG for both sides (1.42 and 1.58) and the 80% probability for that market.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics clearly favor the visitors offensively: Yelimay Semey averages 2.5 goals scored per season versus 1.0 for Zhetysu, higher xG 1.97 vs 1.40, more shots (17.5 vs 12.5) and shots on target (7.0 vs 3.5), and a better conversion rate 14% vs 8%, indicating more scoring opportunities and greater efficiency from the away side. The visitors also dominate after the break: average second-half goals are 2.5 for Yelimay versus 1.0 for the home team, with the visitors themselves scoring an average of 2.0 goals after half-time, which supports a scenario where they secure a decisive lead in the second 45 minutes. At half-time over the last five matches the visitors have the edge — Yelimay led in 60% of cases versus 40% for Zhetysu, and the away average goals at the break is 0.8 vs 0.4 for the hosts; although Zhetysu officially has 100% clean sheets at home at half-time this season, in the last five matches the hosts conceded an average of 0.6 goals by the break, so that seasonal stat may be misleading. Taking this into account, the strongest and most probable scenario is 2/2 (visitors lead at the break and win), therefore I recommend this pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Zhetysu | Yelimay Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Yelimay Semey is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.25 pts / match - Zhetysu · 2 pts / match - Yelimay Semey
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Yelimay Semey is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Zhetysu · 1.75 goals / match - Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Zhetysu · 0.75 goals / match - Yelimay Semey
Zhetysu scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Yelimay Semey keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
Yelimay Semey scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Zhetysu keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Zhetysu
Over / Under - Yelimay Semey
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Yelimay Semey is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Zhetysu · 1.75 pts / match - Yelimay Semey
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Zhetysu - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Yelimay Semey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Zhetysu
Yelimay Semey
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Zhetysu | Liga | Yelimay Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.50 | 2.09 | ▲ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 30% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 35% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 64% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Zhetysu 0 - 0 - 2 Yelimay Semey. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Zhetysu 0:1 Yelimay Semey. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Zhetysu and Yelimay Semey?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Zhetysu won 0, Yelimay Semey won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey?
Zhetysu score 1.00 goals per game on average and Yelimay Semey 1.75. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Zhetysu's matches and 75% of Yelimay Semey's.
What form are Zhetysu and Yelimay Semey in?
Over the last 5 games Zhetysu have a 1-2-1 record (1.25 points per game) and Yelimay Semey 2-2-0 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Zhetysu vs Yelimay Semey: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.