Zlín vs Hradec Králové: match statistics

Zlín sit 16th and have lost all 7 of their league matches so far, conceding 16 goals, but Hradec Králové have also failed to show convincing form away from home. The hosts have averaged just 0.25 goals across four home matches and failed to score in 75% of them, while the visitors have failed to find the net in all three away games. Hradec do, however, create slightly more shots on target away from home, averaging 3.33 compared with Zlín’s 1, while their defence concedes 1 goal per match on the road, compared with the hosts’ 1.75. Both teams have a similar chance-creation profile, with an xG of 1.20 for Zlín and 1.19 for Hradec, but their extremely poor finishing suggests a tight match with a high probability of a draw.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on Hradec Králové’s away-game struggles: they average no goals scored on the road, and failed to score in 100% of such matches at least once. Although Zlín have not kept a clean sheet at home, Hradec have recorded clean sheets in 33% of their away matches, providing a realistic route to a one-sided result. The last five matches suggest a more open game, as both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their fixtures and conceded an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals, respectively. However, the visitors’ season-long xG of 1.19, lower than Zlín’s 1.48, combined with their zero away scoring efficiency, shifts the assessment slightly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

A model based on chance quality points to a match with the potential for approximately 2.86 goals: Zlín produces an average of 1.48 xG, while Hradec Králové allows 1.77 xG; meanwhile, the visitors have 1.19 xG against 1.59 xG conceded by the hosts. In their last five matches, both teams went over 2.5 goals in 60% of games, while their average goals conceded stood at 2.0 for Zlín and 1.6 for Hradec. Zlín also records more shots, 13.33 compared to 9.33, as well as more shots on target, 4.33 compared to 3.33, strengthening its goalscoring projection at home. Caution around the 2.5 line is warranted because 100% of Hradec's away matches so far have ended with under 2.5 goals; therefore, the safest edge is Over 1.5.

Zlín have won all three of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2.0 goals, while Hradec Králové are yet to score away from home and have suffered two defeats in three matches. The hosts were leading at the break in each of their three home games, averaging 1.33 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors have not taken the lead in the first half on any occasion. Zlín’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: they average 13.33 shots and 4.33 on target, compared with Hradec’s 9.33 and 3.33 respectively. Zlín’s xG stands at 1.48, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents an xG of 1.77, supporting a scenario in which the hosts score and maintain their lead. The teams’ last five matches have been less convincing, but Hradec averaged only 1.0 goal in those games and lost 60% of them; therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome remains 1/1, with Zlín leading at half-time and winning at full-time.