Zlín vs Slovan Liberec: match statistics

Slovan Liberec sit 5th, while Zlín are 16th, with the visitors’ season record standing at 2 wins, a draw and a defeat, compared with four defeats for the hosts. Liberec have won both away matches, averaging 2 goals scored and conceding just 0.5 goals per game, whereas Zlín have lost 100% of their home fixtures and are yet to score. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG is 2.19 compared with Zlín’s 1.34, while Liberec’s opponents generate chances worth just 1.07 xG. Zlín average 14 shots at home, but only 0.5 of them are on target, and with 100% of their matches ending without a goal scored, their chances are severely limited. Liberec are also on a run of two consecutive away wins, making an away victory the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Zlín’s poor home scoring record: the hosts score only 0.5 goals on average, and they failed to score in 50% of their home matches. Liberec have shown a very solid away defence, conceding an average of 0.5 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of such games. The difference in chance creation is also clear, with Zlín recording an xG of 1.25 and 4 shots on target per match, while Liberec average 8 shots on target, increasing the visitors’ chances of a one-sided victory. In their last five matches, Zlín scored just 0.8 goals per game, with BTTS landing in 40% of fixtures, while conceding 1.8 goals on average. Liberec should find a way through Zlín’s defence without a clean sheet, but the more likely scenario is that the hosts will fail to respond with a goal.

Zlín have averaged just 0.5 goals per game this season and 0.8 across their last five matches, while Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league appearances. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.25 xG, but their shot conversion rate is only 4%, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. Liberec possess significantly greater attacking potential, averaging 2.19 xG, 2 goals and 8 shots on target per match, but Zlín’s defence allows opponents just 1.06 xG. In the teams’ last five matches, games featuring at least 3 goals accounted for 40% each, while Zlín have not recorded a single match with Over 2.5 goals in the current campaign. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals: Liberec’s superiority should be enough to control the match, but the data points more towards a result in the 1–3 goal range than an open, end-to-end contest.

Slovan Liberec are clearly stronger based on the data available so far: they score an average of 2.0 goals per match, concede just 0.5, and have won 100% of their games, while Zlín are still without a victory and average only 0.5 goals. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in their chance creation, with an xG of 2.19 compared with the hosts’ 1.25, while their average of 8.0 shots on target is twice Zlín’s 4.0. Zlín have yet to score before half-time and were behind at the break in 50% of their matches, whereas Liberec kept a clean sheet at half-time in 100% of cases and held the lead in 50% of their games. In their last five matches, the hosts lost 80% of their games and conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Liberec scored an average of 1.0 goal after the break and conceded 0.6. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains an HT/FT outcome of 2/2, with the visitors taking the lead at the break and maintaining it until the final whistle.