Zlín vs Teplice: match statistics

Zlín has a clear offensive edge at home: they average 1.43 goals per match and 12.21 shots, of which 3.79 are on target, while Teplice on the road average 0.93 goals with 10.07 shots and 3.29 on target. The hosts also have a higher home xG (1.38 vs 1.16) and better shot conversion (12% vs 9%), and the share of goalless matches is 21% for the hosts versus 36% for the visitors, giving Zlín an advantage in chance creation and finishing. Against the hosts, however, stands poor defence in the last five matches: they conceded 14 goals (2.8 per match), while Teplice conceded only 5 (1.0 per match); the visitors averaged 0.8 points per match in that period versus 0.6 for the hosts. Additionally, Teplice register 57% draws away compared to 29% home draws for the hosts, which increases the likelihood of a points split despite the home advantages. Taking into account the hosts’ superior efficiency and xG (1.43 vs 0.93 goals, xG 1.38 vs 1.16) and the lower share of goalless matches, I predict a home win with a probability distribution of 50% for '1', 30% for 'X' and 20% for '2'.

Recent match and season indicators favor BTTS: Zlín has a season BTTS of 43%, Teplice 57%, and in their last 5 games both teams register BTTS at 60%. Analysis of quality of chances shows Zlín generates 1.33 xG on average, Teplice 1.16 xG, while xG against is 1.41 and 1.81 respectively, yielding a combined xG_for of about 2.49, close to the league average of 2.6. In the short term Zlín is more vulnerable at the back — conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while Teplice conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game); seasonally Zlín also has 43% clean sheets versus 29% for Teplice, which only partially limits the BTTS trend. On-field statistics are similar: 10.71 vs 10.07 shots and 3.57 vs 3.29 shots on target with the same 9% conversion, so enough chances are created for both teams to score. Considering 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams, combined xG ~2.49 and Zlín’s clear susceptibility to conceding (2.8 per game), the Both Teams To Score scenario is more likely — I recommend BTTS = Yes.

Zlín scores an average of 1.0 goal per game this season, while Teplice average 0.93; however, the home xG is 1.33 versus Teplice’s conceded xG of 1.81, translating to roughly 1.57 expected goals for Zlín. For the visitors, attacking xG is 1.16 and the home conceded xG is 1.41, yielding ~1.29 expected goals for Teplice and a total of ~2.86 goals in the match. A strong signal comes from Zlín’s form in the last 5 matches: 7 goals scored and 14 conceded (avg 4.2 goals per game) and 100% of their last 5 games were Over 2.5, whereas Teplice had 20% Over 2.5 in their last five. Season-long rates show moderate tendencies: Over 2.5 stands at 43% for both teams, Over 1.5 is 57% for the home side and 64% for the visitors, and BTTS rates are 43% for the home team and 57% for the away team. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈78% probability), while Over 2.5 has moderate backing (≈54%) and Over 3.5 is less likely (≈32%).

A draw at Half-Time appears most likely: the home side drew in 5 of 14 matches (36%), and the visitors in 9 of 14 (64%), averaging to roughly a 50% chance of an HT draw. The first half is low-scoring — homes average 0.5 goals to the break, visitors 0.29, with HT averages of 1.07 (home) versus 0.86 (away), so I expect a low score at Half-Time. The second half yields more goals (average goals after the break 1.07 for home versus 1.36 for away), and 71% of the visitors’ away matches finish with the same scoreline as at the break, which increases the probability of maintaining the draw through Full-Time. xG shows only a small home advantage (1.33 versus 1.16), therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw (X/X).