Zrinjski vs Borac Banja Luka: match statistics

The favorites in this matchup are the visitors, Borac Banja Luka (1st), who have recorded 22 wins this season compared to Zrinjski’s 18 (2nd) and scored 67 goals versus the hosts’ 38. In their last five matches Borac have scored 9 goals with a 4-1-0 record (avg. 2.6 points per game), while Zrinjski have 7 goals and a 3-1-1 record (avg. 2.0 points). Borac generate more high-quality chances: away xG 1.81 vs Zrinjski’s home xG 1.64, more shots per game 14.79 vs 13.21, more shots on target 5.93 vs 4.29 and higher conversion rate 11% vs 9%. Defensively both teams concede an average of 0.57 goals per game, but Borac have a better clean sheet rate (64% of away games with a clean sheet vs 50% for Zrinjski at home) and a much lower share of matches without scoring (14% vs 29%). Although Zrinjski dominate possession (58% vs 50%), Borac’s superior offensive efficiency and better form point to an away win.

I predict no BTTS (BTTS - No) with a probability of 75% versus 25% for Yes. The key argument is clean sheets: Borac keeps a clean sheet in 64% of away matches, Zrinjski in 40% of home matches, which implies only about 60% of Zrinjski’s matches and 36% of Borac’s matches see goals conceded, and simplifying, the probability that both teams concede is ~0.6×0.36 ≈ 22%. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures both sides produced BTTS in only 20% of cases and on average conceded 0.4 goals per game, confirming defensive form. Although Zrinjski scores on average 3.0 goals at home and has xG 1.83, and Borac in the last 5 games has xG 2.02 and scored 9 goals, the high home conversion (conversion 21%) does not outweigh the opponent’s dominant clean sheets and the low league-level BTTS tendency of 37%.

Average xG indicates expected goals of 1.43 for Zrinjski (attacking xG 1.83 vs Borac defensive xG 1.03) and 1.35 for Borac (attacking xG 1.81 vs Zrinjski defensive xG 0.88), totaling 2.78 expected goals. Zrinjski scores an average of 3.0 goals at home and has a high shot conversion rate of 21%, while Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of their home matches; Borac averages 1.57 goals and records Over 1.5 in 64% of away games. In the last 5 rounds both teams combined for 16 goals (3.2 per game on average), which further confirms a tendency toward multi-goal matches. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (approx. 77%), Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (approx. 53%), and Over 3.5 is a low-probability scenario (approx. 30%).

Zrinjski led at the break in 9 home matches (60%) and averages 1.33 first-half goals at home while conceding 0.47, giving them a clear advantage at Half-Time. The hosts win 87% of home matches, and after the break they score on average 1.67 goals and concede only 0.2 (second halves: won in 80% of cases), which increases the likelihood of maintaining their lead and securing the Full-Time win. xG is similar (1.83 for Zrinjski vs 1.81 for Borac), but the hosts’ superior finishing efficiency (conversion rate 21% vs 11%) and a comparable number of shots on target (6.0 vs 5.93) indicate Zrinjski better capitalizes on created chances. Borac keep a clean sheet at Half-Time in 86% of away games and score on average 0.79 goals before the break, so their threat before Half-Time is limited; therefore the most probable and strongest signal is Zrinjski leading at the break and winning at Full-Time (1/1).