Zürich vs Basel: match statistics

Zürich have a weaker overall record, with 1 win and 8 goals conceded in 3 matches, but they won their only home game so far, scoring 2 goals. The hosts create more attacking quality at home: their average xG stands at 1.39, while 6 shots on target per match is significantly higher than Basel’s mere 1 shot on target away from home. Basel currently sit 4th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals during that run, so they remain a very genuine threat. The visitors kept a clean sheet in their only away match, but allowed their opponents an xG of 2.01, suggesting their defence may have benefited more from good fortune than dominance. Home advantage and the greater volume of chances created give Zürich a slight edge, although the match is expected to be closely contested.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by recent form: Zürich recorded BTTS in 80% of their previous five matches, while Basel did so in 60%. Over the same period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Basel conceded 1.8, clearly increasing the chances that both sides will allow their opponents a scoring opportunity. Basel have recently scored as many as 2.6 goals per match, while Zürich, despite a lower average of 1.2 goals, created chances worth 1.19 xG; the visitors’ defence, meanwhile, allowed an average of 1.56 xG. Zürich also average 2.0 goals at home, and Basel’s defence has a season-long 100% clean-sheet rate, but this sample conflicts with the 9 goals they conceded in their last five matches. With the league-wide BTTS rate at 72%, the more likely outcome is that both teams will find the net.

Zürich create chances worth an average of 1.45 xG at home, while Basel allow opponents as much as 2.01 xG away from home, which clearly supports a goal for the hosts. Basel have averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Zürich conceded 2.2 goals per game during the same period. The recent results of both teams have been high-scoring: over 2.5 goals were recorded in 100% of Zürich’s last 5 matches and in 60% of Basel’s games, compared with a league average of 3.83 goals. At the same time, Basel’s defensive data from the short seasonal split are strong, making Over 1.5 a safer choice than Over 2.5, with its probability estimated at 79%.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Basel victory at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last matches and have not trailed at half-time on any occasion. During this period, Basel averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before the break, while Zürich averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. After the interval, Zürich’s performance drops off noticeably: in their recent matches, they have conceded an average of 1.75 goals while scoring just 0.75, whereas Basel have averaged 1.2 goals. Full-match form also favours the visitors, who averaged 2.6 goals scored and won 60% of their last five matches, compared with Zürich’s 1.2 goals and 40% win rate. The hosts have some supporting metrics in the form of an xG of 1.45 and an average of 5 shots on target, but their opponents allow a high xG of 2.01, increasing the likelihood of an evenly matched first half rather than Zürich maintaining an advantage until the final whistle.