Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock: match statistics

Aberdeen are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points per game during this period, while Kilmarnock have won only once and averaged 0.8 points. The hosts have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, whereas the visitors have conceded as many as 15 goals over the same period. Away from home, Kilmarnock have lost 100% of their matches, concede an average of 4 goals, have kept no clean sheets and allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.71 xG. Aberdeen also have defensive issues, as they have yet to keep a clean sheet at home, but Kilmarnock create only 1.02 xG away from home, with 7 shots per match. The visitors’ scoring rate of 3 goals per away match increases the likelihood of them finding the net, but the form advantage and Kilmarnock’s very poor defense point towards an Aberdeen victory.

The BTTS pick is primarily supported by Kilmarnock’s very poor defensive record, with the team conceding an average of 3.0 goals over their last 5 matches while allowing 2.10 xG per game. Aberdeen scored an average of 1.6 goals and produced 1.51 xG over the same period, so despite only 20% of their matches featuring goals from both teams, they should have a clear chance of scoring. The visitors have averaged 3.0 goals per game this season, while the hosts have kept no clean sheets and conceded an average of 4.5 goals. Kilmarnock also have a 0% clean-sheet rate and 100% BTTS in the season data, reinforcing the scenario in which both teams find the net. Aberdeen’s recent defensive improvement, conceding 0.8 goals per game across their last five appearances, reduces confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ attacking potential still gives the edge to the BTTS - Yes option.

The signal for at least two goals is strong, as Over 1.5 goals occurred in 100% of the teams’ matches to date at the respective stadiums. Kilmarnock score an average of 3.0 goals away from home but also concede 4.0, while Aberdeen allow opponents as many as 4.5 goals per home match. The last five fixtures also support a higher total: Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Aberdeen’s matches and 80% of Kilmarnock’s, with the visitors conceding 15 goals during this period, or 3.0 per game. Aberdeen have produced an average of 1.51 xG over their last five matches, while Kilmarnock’s defense allows 2.10 xG, so the hosts should bring the match significantly closer to the two-goal mark.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Aberdeen win at full-time (X/1), as the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded just 0.8 over their last five matches, while Kilmarnock have been allowing as many as 3.0 goals per game. The first half could nevertheless be closely contested: Aberdeen were level at the break in 40% of their recent matches, compared with 60% for Kilmarnock, with both sides scoring just 0.4 goals before half-time. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases, as Aberdeen have recently averaged 1.2 goals in the second half while conceding only 0.4, whereas the visitors have conceded 1.4 goals during this period. In addition, Aberdeen have won three of their last five matches, while Kilmarnock have lost three of five, further strengthening the forecast of a home turnaround from a half-time draw in the latter stages of the match.