Arema vs Persik Kediri: match statistics

Arema sit higher in the table, in 4th place compared with Persik Kediri in 8th, and have scored 7 goals while conceding just 3 in their three matches so far. The hosts won their only home game by an emphatic 4:0 scoreline, collecting all three points and keeping a clean sheet, which significantly strengthens their home advantage. In their last five matches, Arema have scored 10 goals, while Persik have netted 6 and conceded as many as 9; their record over this period stands at 2 wins and 3 defeats. Persik won their only away match 2:0, but an average xG of 0,86 against 1,24 xG conceded suggests they create fewer high-quality chances than they allow their opponents. Arema’s attacking edge and very strong opening home performance point towards a home win, although the limited sample size increases the risk of a closely contested match.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the share of matches in which both teams scored stands at 0% for both sides in the available league data, while Persik Kediri has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its matches. Arema has yet to score in this dataset, despite averaging 1.83 xG and 4 shots on target per match, which indicates a clear finishing problem. Persik averages 2.0 goals, but its lower xG of 0.86 and just 4 shots per match reduce confidence that both teams will score. The last five matches provide slightly more support for goals, with Arema recording BTTS in 40% of matches and Persik in 20%; however, both figures are clearly below the league average of 61%. A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is therefore more likely than a goal exchange.

The latest form of both teams points to an open game: in their last five matches, Arema averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Persik Kediri scored 1.2 and allowed opponents to score 1.8 goals. In the same sample, 60% of each team’s matches went over 2.5 goals, clearly supporting at least two goals in the game. Arema’s attacking potential is further confirmed by an average of 12 shots and 4 shots on target, while Persik allows opponents an xG of 1.24. On the other hand, the current season data is very limited, and all previous matches involving both teams stayed under 2.5 goals, meaning the edge for Over 2.5 is only marginal. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.65 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

Arema have shown a clearly stronger profile in the first halves of their last five matches: they led at the break in 60% of those games, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.6. Over the same period, Persik Kediri scored only 0.6 goals before half-time, were behind at the break in 40% of their matches, and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. The hosts also create more chances, recording an xG of 1.83 and 12 shots per match, compared with the visitors’ xG of 0.86 and four shots. Across their last five matches, Arema have averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Persik have conceded 1.8, further supporting the scenario of the hosts maintaining their advantage after the interval. Although Persik won the only match included in the current sample 2-0, Arema’s superior current attacking output and first-half form make the HT/FT 1/1 outcome—Arema leading at the break and winning the match—the most likely scenario.