Auda vs Grobiņa: match statistics

Auda sit 3rd, while Grobiņa are eighth, and the difference in class is reflected in the season record: 16 home wins compared with just 5 victories for the visitors. At home, Auda average 1.86 goals with an xG of 1.70, whereas Grobiņa score only 0.57 goals per away match and fail to score in 43% of games. The hosts create more chances, averaging 13.64 shots and 5 on target per match, compared with 10.29 and 3.29 respectively for their opponents, while also dominating possession 63% to 45%. Grobiņa’s away defensive record is poor, with the team conceding an average of 2.21 goals and keeping a clean sheet in just 14% of matches; moreover, they have conceded as many as 16 goals in their last five league games. Current form also clearly favors Auda, who have collected 10 points from their last five matches, while Grobiņa have suffered four defeats and picked up just 3 points.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Auda saw both teams score in only 36% of their matches this season, while Grobiņa recorded this outcome in 43%—well below the league average of 55%. The visitors’ low attacking efficiency is particularly significant: they score just 0.57 goals per match on average and have failed to score in 43% of their appearances. In their last five matches, Auda have allowed opponents only 0.53 xG per game, despite their overall average of 1.36 goals conceded. Grobiņa, meanwhile, concede 2.21 goals per match, rising to 3.2 over their last five, making a scenario with a home goal and at least one team failing to score more likely. The visitors’ 60% BTTS rate in their recent matches increases the chances of BTTS - Yes, but it does not offset Grobiņa’s poor season-long goal production and Auda’s excellent current defensive form.

Auda have clearly improved their attacking output: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals scored, with an average xG of 1.53. This is particularly favorable against Grobiņa, who conceded as many as 3.2 goals per game over the same period and allowed opponents 2.34 xG. The visitors have recently averaged just 1.0 goal scored, while Auda allowed their opponents only 0.53 xG across five matches, meaning the main goal-scoring burden should fall on the home side. Over 1.5 goals was recorded in 57% of Auda’s matches and 79% of Grobiņa’s matches this season, while the visitors’ defensive problems further support this projection, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick. At the same time, both teams had 71% of their matches finish below 3.5 goals, which limits confidence in higher lines.

Auda are clearly stronger in terms of current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 1.4, while Grobiņa have lost 4 of their 5 games and allowed opponents to score an average of 3.2 goals. The signal for the home side to lead at the break is strong, as Auda were ahead after 45 minutes in 60% of their recent matches, whereas Grobiņa have not led at half-time once and conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the first half. During this period, the hosts scored 0.8 goals per game before the break while conceding just 0.4, whereas the visitors failed to score in any first half. Across the season, Grobiņa have a weak defensive record, conceding an average of 2.21 goals per match, while Auda also have a better shot-conversion rate, 9% compared with 6%. Although half-time draws occurred in 57% of Auda’s matches over the season, their current form advantage and the visitors’ clear problems primarily point towards an HT/FT scenario of Auda leading at half-time and winning the match.