Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: match statistics
The match is shaping up to be extremely tight, which points towards a draw. Caernarfon Town has the home-field advantage and good scoring efficiency in their home games (averaging 2 goals), but the recent form of both teams raises doubts - the hosts have secured 1.4 points per game in their last 5 matches, while the visitors only 0.6. Connah's Quay holds a better position in the table and boasts an impressive away record (50% win rate, 43% clean sheets), yet their current winless streak (3 draws, 2 defeats) suggests form issues. The xG statistics are close for both teams, and the visitors' ball possession advantage (56%) could be neutralized by the hosts' clinical finishing. Considering all factors, a sharing of the points seems the most probable outcome.
Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Caernarfon Town played against Connah's Quay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The game was played on March 13, 2026. Final score: 2:4.
Recent form
Caernarfon Town has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Connah's Quay has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 0.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Caernarfon Town scores 1.81 goals per game and allows 1.37. Connah's Quay scores 1.93 and allows 1.15. Games in this league average 2.96 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Caernarfon Town's games and 63% of Connah's Quay's. The Over 2.5 rates are 59% and 70%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Connah's Quay has the higher season xG average, 1.77 to 1.53 per game. Caernarfon Town takes 12.5 shots per game, while Connah's Quay takes 13.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Caernarfon Town leads at halftime in 26% of its games and scores 1.22 goals per game after halftime. Connah's Quay leads at halftime in 41% and scores 1.11 after halftime.
When the teams score
Caernarfon Town's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). For Connah's Quay, it is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Welsh Premier League games average 2.96 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match is shaping up to be extremely tight, which points towards a draw. Caernarfon Town has the home-field advantage and good scoring efficiency in their home games (averaging 2 goals), but the recent form of both teams raises doubts - the hosts have secured 1.4 points per game in their last 5 matches, while the visitors only 0.6. Connah's Quay holds a better position in the table and boasts an impressive away record (50% win rate, 43% clean sheets), yet their current winless streak (3 draws, 2 defeats) suggests form issues. The xG statistics are close for both teams, and the visitors' ball possession advantage (56%) could be neutralized by the hosts' clinical finishing. Considering all factors, a sharing of the points seems the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Caernarfon Town | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Caernarfon Town is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Caernarfon Town · 0.6 pts / game - Connah's Quay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 7% better for: goals scored per game.
1.81 goals / game - Caernarfon Town · 1.93 goals / game - Connah's Quay
Connah's Quay is 19% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.37 goals / game - Caernarfon Town · 1.15 goals / game - Connah's Quay
Caernarfon Town scores in 81% of games (22 of 27 meczów), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 30% (8 of 27 meczów).
Connah's Quay scores in 85% of games (23 of 27 meczów), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / game - Caernarfon Town · 1.67 pts / game - Connah's Quay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 37%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 52%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Caernarfon Town | Liga | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.19 | 2.96 | ▲ 3.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 55% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 29% | • 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 73% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Caernarfon Town's perspective: 1 win, 2 draws and 0 losses against Connah's Quay. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Caernarfon Town 2:4 Connah's Quay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Caernarfon Town won 1, Connah's Quay won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
Caernarfon Town score 1.81 goals per game on average and Connah's Quay 1.93. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.96 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Caernarfon Town's matches and 63% of Connah's Quay's.
What form are Caernarfon Town and Connah's Quay in?
Over the last 5 games Caernarfon Town have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Connah's Quay 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay?
The statistical background for Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.