Connah's Quay vs Penybont: match statistics
Connah's Quay vs Penybont: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Connah's Quay played against Penybont in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The game was played on October 3, 2026. Venue: Deeside College Stadium. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Connah's Quay has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Penybont has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 3.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Connah's Quay scores 2.45 goals per game and allows 0.73. Penybont scores 2.00 and allows 0.82. Games in this league average 3.34 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 55% of Connah's Quay's games and 64% of Penybont's. The Over 2.5 rates are 73% and 64%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 61% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Connah's Quay has the higher season xG average, 1.76 to 1.43 per game. Connah's Quay takes 13.0 shots per game, while Penybont takes 11.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Connah's Quay leads at halftime in 73% of its games and scores 1.18 goals per game after halftime. Penybont leads at halftime in 64% and scores 0.64 after halftime.
When the teams score
Connah's Quay's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). For Penybont, it is minutes 31-45+ (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Welsh Premier League games average 3.34 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 61% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Penybont head into the match on the back of five consecutive wins, while Connah's Quay have won 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors remain unbeaten this season and have won 80% of their away matches, giving them a slight edge despite playing on their opponents' turf. Both teams regularly create good chances: the hosts average 1.80 xG at home, compared with the visitors' 1.82 xG away; Penybont also average 6.6 shots on target per match, versus 5.83 for Connah's Quay. However, the hosts have a strong defensive case: they concede an average of just 0.5 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while the visitors concede 0.8 goals away. This defensive solidity increases the chances of a draw, but Penybont's winning streak and the visitors' average of 2.6 goals scored away point to a narrow preference for the away side.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a high rate of matches in which both sides score: 67% for Connah's Quay and 60% for Penybont, compared with 54% league-wide. In their last five matches, this scenario occurred in 60% of games for each team, with the home side scoring an average of 2.0 goals and the away side 2.4. Penybont show greater attacking strength, averaging 1.82 xG and 6.6 shots on target per match, compared with Connah's Quay's 1.10 xG and 2.83 shots on target. Solid defenses pose a risk to the BTTS - Yes pick, with the teams conceding an average of 0.83 and 0.80 goals respectively. However, their BTTS records and scoring form give a moderate edge to the outcome in which both teams find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Penybont score an average of 2.6 goals per match, compared with 1.5 for Connah's Quay, pointing to at least two goals. Across their last five matches, the teams averaged 2.4 and 2.0 goals per match, respectively, and in both cases 60% of those games finished Over 2.5 goals. The visitors create more chances: their xG is 1.82 compared with the hosts' 1.10, and they average 6.6 shots on target against 2.83. With Over 1.5 goals landing in 80% of Penybont matches and 67% of Connah's Quay matches, this line offers a stronger signal than the more demanding 2.5-goal threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is a realistic outcome, as Connah's Quay have not conceded in the first half of any of their last 5 matches and went into the break level in 3 of them. However, Penybont have averaged 1.6 first-half goals across their last 5 games and were leading at the break in 3, so the away side to lead at half-time remains almost equally likely. Over the full match, the attacking advantage favors Penybont: the visitors average 2.6 goals compared with the hosts' 1.5, while their average xG is 1.82 versus 1.10. Penybont have won all 5 of their last matches, while Connah's Quay have won 3 of 5; in addition, season data shows the visitors average 0.8 goals after half-time compared with 0.5 for the hosts. Therefore, I rate the scenario in which the hosts hold the match level at the break before the visitors win after half-time marginally highest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Penybont is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Connah's Quay · 3 pts / game - Penybont
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 23% better for: goals scored per game.
2.45 goals / game - Connah's Quay · 2 goals / game - Penybont
Connah's Quay is 12% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.73 goals / game - Connah's Quay · 0.82 goals / game - Penybont
Connah's Quay scores in 100% of games (11 of 11 games), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 36% (4 of 11 games).
Penybont scores in 91% of games (10 of 11 games), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - Penybont
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.45 pts / game - Connah's Quay · 2.18 pts / game - Penybont
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 73% of games and wins 73%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.6 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 64% of games and wins 73%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Connah's Quay
Penybont
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 3.18 | 3.34 | ▼ 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 24% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 78% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 86% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Connah's Quay's perspective: 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Penybont. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 25% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 1:0 Penybont. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Penybont?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 3, Penybont won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
Connah's Quay score 2.45 goals per game on average and Penybont 2.00. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.34 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Connah's Quay's matches and 64% of Penybont's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Penybont in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Penybont 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Penybont — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.