Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: match statistics

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead the table after three wins, scoring 12 goals, while Hapoel have netted 7 goals in three matches and remain second. At home, the hosts average 3 goals per match, register 14 shots, including 7 on target, and boast a very high conversion rate of 21%. Hapoel have impressed defensively, as they are yet to concede in the league and allow opponents just 0.82 xG away from home. However, in their only such match, they drew 0:0 and failed to score despite recording 1.27 xG. Maccabi create chances worth an average of 1.65 xG at home, but their defense allows opponents 1.79 xG and has yet to keep a clean sheet, increasing the visitors’ chances of making this a closely contested match. The hosts’ advantage is primarily based on their clearly superior goal production and perfect home record, although a draw remains a realistic alternative given Hapoel’s solid defensive organization.

The strongest signal is Hapoel’s attacking record to date: according to the season data, they have not scored a single goal, failing to find the net in 100% of their matches. Maccabi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their season games, supported by an excellent defensive xG conceded figure of just 0.80. The hosts hold a clear offensive advantage, averaging 2.55 xG and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with Hapoel’s 1.27 xG and 4.0 shots on target. The last five matches give the visitors a reasonable chance of scoring, as they have produced 1.73 xG, but they conceded only 1 goal in total during that period and their BTTS rate was 0%. Although Maccabi recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their last five matches, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, primarily a home win to nil.

Maccabi Tel Aviv create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.55 xG, 21.5 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, while scoring 2.8 goals across their last five fixtures. The hosts have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their home matches so far, while their games across the last five rounds produced at least three goals in 80% of cases. Hapoel have solid recent defensive numbers, conceding just 0.2 goals per match over their last five fixtures, but they allow an average of 1.03 xG and generate 1.73 xG themselves. The projected goal tally of 1.85 for the hosts and 0.80 for the visitors produces a combined total of 2.65 goals, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as it combines Maccabi’s attacking potential with sufficient quality from Hapoel, while carrying less risk than the 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

Maccabi Tel Aviv have a clear attacking advantage: their average xG stands at 2.55 compared with Hapoel’s 1.27, while the hosts average 21.5 shots and 7.5 on target per match, versus 10 and 4 for their opponents. In their last five matches, Maccabi led at the break in 60% of games and scored an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, whereas Hapoel found the net just 0.2 times in the same period. Hapoel were level at half-time in 80% of their last five appearances, making X/1 a significant alternative; however, the visitors’ weaker first-half performance limits their chances of taking the lead. After the break, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals over their last five matches, while their season data show as many as 3.0 goals per second half, strengthening the forecast that they will maintain or extend their advantage. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Maccabi lead at the break and go on to win the match.