Mura vs Celje: match statistics

Celje are showing significantly better current form: they have collected 6 points from their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals, while Mura have managed just 1 point and only 2 goals. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures, and over the course of the season they have conceded an average of 2.5 goals at home while scoring just 0.75 per match. Away from home, Celje average 1.75 goals, have failed to score in none of their matches, and create higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.67 compared to Mura’s 1.35 at home. The visitors also record more shots on target per match, 4.25 to 3.25, while their conversion rate stands at 14%, compared to 6% for the hosts. Mura can rely on home advantage, but a run of three consecutive home defeats and a vulnerable defense point towards a Celje victory.

Mura is clearly the weakest link in the BTTS scenario: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their appearances during this period. The hosts have failed to score in 25% of their matches this season, while Celje have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games, further increasing the risk that Mura will once again remain scoreless. Celje should have a good chance of scoring, as Mura have recently conceded an average of 2.2 goals, while the visitors are averaging 4.25 shots on target per match and 1.75 goals per game this season. Although Mura’s xG from their last 5 matches stands at a respectable 1.54, their very poor finishing has resulted in just 2 goals. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

Celje averages 1.75 goals per match, while Mura have conceded as many as 2.2 goals across their last five games, significantly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The visitors have surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches this season, whereas Mura have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of their games. Celje’s attacking potential is also reflected in their average xG of 1.79 over the last five matches, compared with an xG against Mura of 1.38. However, Mura have been inefficient in front of goal, scoring just 0.4 goals per game in their last five appearances, which is why Over 2.5 does not offer the same level of value despite a projected total of 2.55 goals. The safest signal remains Over 1.5, supported by the hosts’ poor recent defensive record and Celje’s consistent scoring form.

Celje have a clear first-half advantage: they average 1.0 goals before the break, while Mura have failed to score in the first half and concede an average of 0.75 goals. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 4 matches, whereas Celje have not been behind at the break on any occasion; the visitors were leading in 50% of their games. Recent form further favors Celje, as Mura have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game and conceding 2.2, while Celje have won 40% of their fixtures. The visitors also generate slightly higher xG, 1.67 compared with Mura’s 1.60, register 4.25 shots on target per match versus Mura’s 3.25, and have a conversion rate of 14% compared with 8%. Mura are relatively stronger after half-time, but their very poor opening performance and Celje’s advantage in attacking quality make a scenario in which the visitors lead at the break and secure the final victory the most likely outcome.