São Bernardo vs Náutico: match statistics

Both teams appear to have comparable potential, although Náutico have the slightly better recent run of form, taking 6 points from their last 5 matches compared with São Bernardo’s 4. The visitors create more high-quality chances away from home, with an average xG of 1.55 versus the hosts’ 1.39 at home, and also score 1.42 goals per match compared with São Bernardo’s 1.08. At the same time, Náutico concede as many as 1.50 goals per away game and keep a clean sheet in only 17% of their away fixtures, giving the hosts a realistic chance of scoring. São Bernardo draw 42% of their home matches, while Náutico have drawn 3 of their last 5 games, making a share of the points the most likely outcome.

Although São Bernardo’s season-long BTTS rate is only 18%, the team’s last five matches produced BTTS in 80% of cases, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Náutico’s BTTS rate stands at 58% for the season and 60% across their last five matches, while their average xG over this period is a high 1.92. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 2.09 xG and 5.55 shots on target per match, whereas the visitors concede 1.50 goals per game over the season. The main risk to the pick is Náutico’s strong recent defensive record, having allowed only 3 goals in five matches. However, São Bernardo’s weakened defense and the current goal-scoring indicators slightly favor BTTS - Yes.

São Bernardo’s seasonal profile clearly favors low-scoring outcomes: no more than 2.5 goals were scored in 73% of its matches, while 3.5 goals were not exceeded in 91%. Náutico has a slightly more open profile, but 75% of its matches also finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. The hosts concede an average of just 0.73 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their games, limiting the forecast for the visitors to 0.88 goals. Although São Bernardo generates an average of 2.09 xG and takes 19.64 shots, it converts just 5% of its attempts and scores only 0.91 goals per match over the season. Recent form increases the risk of three goals being scored, but the combination of the hosts’ solid defense and the low frequency of four-goal outcomes provides the strongest edge on Under 3.5 goals.

São Bernardo has the clearer first-half profile: they were leading at the break in 36% of their matches, while Náutico were trailing at half-time in as many as 58% of games and conceded an average of 0.92 goals before the interval. The hosts are also highly solid defensively from the outset, keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 73% of matches, whereas the visitors failed to score in the first half in 75% of their outings. Across the season, São Bernardo have conceded an average of just 0.73 goals per home match, while Náutico allow opponents 1.50 goals on average away from home, further supporting the scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead. The home side’s superiority in chance creation is also evident, with average xG of 2.09 compared with the visitors’ 1.55, while shots on target stand at 5.55 versus 4.00. Náutico’s recent form is a cautious counterargument, as the team have avoided defeat in their last five matches, but the first-half data profile and São Bernardo’s defensive strength still provide the strongest support for the 1/1 outcome.