Široki Brijeg vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

Široki Brijeg has a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they average 1.00 goal scored per game, concede 1.00, have average xG of 1.23 and 3.59 on-target shots per game with a 10% conversion rate and only 12% of matches without scoring. Radnik Bijeljina on the road scores only 0.71 goals per game and concedes 1.65, with attacking xG of 1.02 versus 1.59 for their opponents, and 59% of away matches end with them failing to score. In the last 5 matches Široki scored 6 goals with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, while Radnik managed only 1 goal in the same period, despite both teams averaging 1.0 point per game across those five fixtures. Additionally, the hosts win 47% of home matches and keep 35% clean sheets, whereas Radnik has only 6% away wins and 18% clean sheets, indicating a significant defensive and efficiency edge for the home side. Considering Široki’s superior chance generation and greater efficiency (more on-target shots and 10% conversion) and Radnik’s pronounced scoring issues away (0.71 goals and 59% of matches without a goal), I forecast a home victory.

I assess BTTS probability at 25% (Yes) and 75% (No); I select 'No' as the strongest signal. The home team has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 17% and has kept a clean sheet in 56% of matches, with averages of 0.83 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per match, indicating a defensive tendency. The away team’s seasonal BTTS is 41% with 0.71 goals per match, but in the last 5 fixtures they registered 0% BTTS and scored just 1 goal total (0.2 per match), which significantly reduces their chance to score. Although the home xG is 1.19 versus the away xG against of 1.59, actual efficiency (shot conversion 9% vs 8% and average on-target shots ~3.2 vs 3.1) does not point to high attacking effectiveness from either side. Considering the low seasonal home BTTS of 17%, 56% clean sheets and the away side’s poor scoring form (0.2 goals in the last 5 matches), the 'No' scenario appears most likely.

Average xG shows 1.19 for Široki Brijeg and 1.02 for Radnik, while xG against is 1.33 (home) and 1.59 (away), yielding a simple average expected 1.39 goals for the home side and 1.18 for the visitors (total 2.57). A Poisson model with λ=2.57 gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈73%, Over 2.5 ≈47% and Over 3.5 ≈26%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. From a seasonal perspective the hosts score on average 0.83 goals and keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches, whereas Radnik concedes on average 1.65 goals and have only 18% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood of the visitors scoring and of at least two goals in the match. Additionally the home side average 9.72 shots per match versus 8.41 for the visitors, and xG_for is noticeably higher than actual goals (1.19 vs 0.83 for the hosts), so I expect more chances and recommend Over 1.5 as the optimal line.

I back HT/FT 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins) because the statistics favor Široki Brijeg. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (28%) versus only 1 such case for Radnik (6%), which when averaged yields roughly a 38% chance of the home side leading at the break. Široki posts a higher xG of 1.19 versus the visitors’ 1.02, a season home goals average of 0.83 versus Radnik’s 0.71, and a home points average of 1.44 compared to 0.53 for the away side; Radnik concedes on average 1.65 goals per game (0.88 by half-time). Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches and at half-time in 72% of cases, increasing the likelihood of maintaining a lead; therefore 1/1 carries the highest weight (I estimate 30% for 1/1, 28% for X/1 and 18% for X/X).