Tallinna FC Levadia vs Vaprus: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia lead the league and have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals in that period, while Vaprus have scored just 7 and suffered 3 defeats. At home, Levadia average 2.91 goals per match with an xG of 2.24, whereas Vaprus concede as many as 2.17 goals away from home and allow opponents an average xG of 2.10. The hosts also dominate in chance creation, averaging 19.09 shots and 6.55 shots on target per match, compared with 8.42 shots and 3.17 on target for the visitors. Levadia’s defense at home concedes just 0.64 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 55% of games, while Vaprus have lost 58% of their away fixtures. The difference in quality, current form and home-away performance clearly points to a convincing home win.

The signal for both sides to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 62% of Levadia’s matches this season and as many as 75% of Vaprus’ games, compared with the league average of 59%. Vaprus have a particularly weak defense, conceding an average of 2.17 goals and allowing opponents an xG of 2.10, while Levadia have scored 15 goals in their last five matches and recorded an xG of 2.32 per game. The visitors should also have a chance to score: their average xG across their last five outings stands at 1.44, while the hosts, despite their excellent run, have conceded an average of 1.54 goals per match this season. Current form further supports the BTTS - Yes option, with the market landing in 60% of Levadia’s and 80% of Vaprus’ last five matches. The biggest risk to this pick is an improvement in the hosts’ defensive performance, as they have conceded only 4 goals in their last five fixtures. However, Levadia’s attacking advantage and Vaprus’ defensive vulnerability point towards a Goal/Goal outcome.

Levadia are in excellent attacking form: they have scored 15 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 3.0 per game, with an xG of 2.32. Over the same period, Vaprus conceded an average of 2.0 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 2.17, clearly favoring at least two goals for the hosts. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 77% of Levadia matches and 83% of Vaprus games, while both teams have recorded over 0.5 goals in 92% of their matches. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the last five matches for both teams, although with a projected total of 3.20 goals, Over 1.5 remains the safer choice. Levadia's advantage and the visitors' weak defense create a very strong signal for at least two goals in the match.

Levadia are in excellent form, having won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding just 0.8 per game. Over the same period, Vaprus lost 3 of 5 matches, conceded an average of 2.0 goals, and were behind at half-time in as many as 60% of their games. The hosts led at the break in 38% of their matches this season, while the visitors were trailing at that stage in 42%, which clearly strengthens the case for Levadia to take the lead before half-time. The hosts’ advantage should be maintained after the interval, as they scored an average of 2.4 goals after the break in their last five matches and conceded none. The most likely scenario is therefore Levadia taking the lead in the first half and holding on to win the match.