TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys: match statistics

TransINVEST Vilnius sit 1st in the home table, while Panevėžys are 8th in the away standings. At home, the hosts average 1.27 goals scored and concede just 1.00, whereas the visitors score 0.70 goals away from home and allow as many as 2.60. The difference in the quality of chances created is also reflected in the xG figures: TransINVEST record 1.34 xG at home while conceding 1.16 xG, whereas Panevėžys have 1.13 xG away from home and allow 1.73. The visitors have lost 80% of their away matches, failed to score in 50% of them and kept a clean sheet in only 10%, which clearly strengthens the case for the hosts. Panevėžys are without a win in their last five matches, recording four draws and one defeat, while TransINVEST have won 2 of their last 5 and averaged more points over that period: 1.4 compared with 0.8.

TransINVEST has recorded BTTS - Yes in 75% of its matches this season, well above the league average of 50%, while the figure stood at 60% across its last five games. Panevėžys has only a 40% BTTS rate for the season overall, but four of its last five matches featured goals from both sides, equating to 80%. The hosts average 1.17 goals scored, while the visitors concede as many as 2.60, and Panevėžys has kept a clean sheet in only 10% of its matches. The visitors’ chances of scoring are supported by an xG of 1.13 for the season and 1.24 across their last five matches, with TransINVEST posting an xG against of 1.58. Although Panevėžys averages only 0.70 goals scored, the defensive struggles of both teams in their recent run, with each conceding 1.4 goals per match, slightly tip the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

TransINVEST average 1.17 goals at home, while Panevėžys concede as many as 2.60 goals per away match, clearly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors score only 0.70 goals away from home, but the hosts concede an average of 1.08 goals, so their projected total still stands at around 1.00 goal. At least two goals were scored in 75% of TransINVEST matches and 80% of Panevėžys matches, while neither team boasts a high clean-sheet rate: 17% and 10%, respectively. Each team’s last five matches produced an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as it combines both teams’ consistent historical metrics with a projected total of 2.55 goals.

TransINVEST Vilnius held the lead at the break in 6 of 12 matches, or 50% of the time, while Panevėžys were behind at half-time in 60% of their games and conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the first half. The hosts have a clearly stronger overall season record: they score an average of 1.17 goals, compared with just 0.70 for their opponents, while Panevėžys allow as many as 2.60 goals per match. The quality of chances also favors TransINVEST, who generate an xG of 1.36 compared with the visitors’ 1.13 and average 4.25 shots on target against Panevėžys’ 3.10. After the break, the visitors remain inefficient, scoring an average of 0.20 goals and losing the second half in 60% of matches, so a home lead at half-time should most often be maintained. The last five matches increase the risk of a half-time draw, as TransINVEST were level after 45 minutes in 60% of those appearances; however, Panevėžys’ 0 wins during this period still strengthens the 1/1 outcome.