Tukums vs Auda: match statistics

Auda is the clear favorite: they have 11 wins this season versus only 2 for Tukums and sit 3rd in the table compared to the hosts’ 8th, indicating a qualitative edge. The visitors’ form confirms this numerically — in the last 5 matches Auda are 3-1-1 (W-D-L) averaging 2.0 points per game, while Tukums are 0-2-3 with just 0.4 points per game. In game control Auda dominate (57% possession away vs 42% possession for the hosts), registering on average 12.5 shots with xG 1.51 versus Tukums’ 11.44 shots and xG 1.41, which translates to higher-quality chance creation. Tukums have an advantage in home finishing efficiency (2.11 goals per game with 18% conversion vs 1.63 and 13% for Auda), but concede more goals at home (1.44 vs 1.13) and have only 11% clean sheets compared to 38% for the visitors. Considering Auda’s superiority in form, control and defensive stability, I forecast an away win; I estimate the probability distribution as Home 16%, Draw 22% and Away 62%.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Tukums 67% and Auda 63%, versus a league average of 61%, which pre-disposes the match to a BTTS - Yes scenario. Tukums averages 2.22 goals scored and concedes 1.33 per match (30 goals for, 31 against); Auda scores 1.63 and concedes 1.13 (33 for, 21 against). In the last 5 matches hosts conceded 13 goals (2.6 per match) compared to 5 for Auda (1.0 per match), increasing the likelihood of a visiting goal. xG are 1.70 for Tukums and 1.51 for Auda, with xG against 1.27 and 1.10 — both teams are creating roughly 1.5 xG per game, which favors a goal exchange. Additionally, Tukums averages 13.33 shots with 5.22 on target and a conversion rate of 17%; Auda 12.5 shots with 4.25 on target and 13% conversion. Hosts have 78% of matches over 2.5 goals versus 50% for Auda, supporting BTTS and a higher goal count. Although Auda has a higher clean sheet rate (38% vs 22% for Tukums), combining these figures and current form I assign a 70% probability to the 'both teams to score' scenario versus 30% against.

Tukums scores an average of 2.22 goals at home, Auda 1.63 away; their xG are 1.70 (Tukums) and 1.51 (Auda), with xG conceded of 1.27 and 1.10 respectively. After balancing attack and defense I obtained expected goals of 1.54 for Tukums and 1.44 for Auda, totaling 2.98 goals, which is close to the league average of 3.04. Additionally, Tukums have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches (2.6 per game), while Auda have conceded 5 (1.0 per game), which increases the likelihood of goals in this fixture. Seasonal indicators support the Over: Tukums have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and 78% over 2.5, Auda 75% and 50% respectively, and both teams record BTTS in 67% and 63% of games. A Poisson model based on expected goals gives approximately an 80% chance of Over 1.5, 57% for Over 2.5 and 35% for Over 3.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

I forecast the home side will hold a lead at the break, but ultimately the visitors will complete a turnaround, hence the selection 1/2. Hosts score on average 1.11 goals by Half-Time versus 0.75 for the visitors and led at the break in 56% of matches; additionally, 100% of their home games have seen at least one goal before Half-Time. At the same time the visitors perform better over the Full-Time and in late phases: they average 2.38 points per season versus 1.78 for the hosts, have won 60% of their last 5 matches, and their average points in second halves is 1.88 versus 1.44 for the hosts. xG and shot numbers indicate comparable quality (xG 1.70 versus 1.51, average shots on target 5.22 vs 4.25), so the visitors’ edge stems more from form and second-half play than from a large offensive gap. The visitors have scored 4 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for the hosts, which increases the probability of a post-break turnaround; therefore I assign 30% to 1/2, with smaller shares for 1/1 (18%) and 1/X (12%).