AC Milan vs Lecce: match statistics
AC Milan vs Lecce: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AC Milan played Lecce in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 20 September 2026. Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
AC Milan: 2-2-0, 2.00 points/match. Lecce: 2-0-2, 1.50 points/match.
Goal statistics
AC Milan scores 1.75 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Lecce scores 1.25 and concedes 1.75. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AC Milan 75%, Lecce 25%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 50%, Lecce 50%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
AC Milan has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.05. AC Milan: 13.5 shots per match, Lecce: 9.0.
Match halves
AC Milan: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.75. Lecce: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
AC Milan: 61-75 (6 goals). Lecce: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AC Milan remain unbeaten after four league matches, having scored 11 goals and collected 11 points in their last five games, while Lecce have lost 3 of their last five. At home, Milan have won every match so far, averaging 2 goals scored, 16 shots per game, and have yet to concede. The hosts are also creating significantly better chances: their average xG stands at 1.69, while Lecce allow opponents an xG as high as 2.18 away from home. The visitors score just 1 goal per away game, have failed to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures, and average 44% possession compared to Milan’s 58%. Milan’s superiority in game control, chance quality, and defensive stability points to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal is Lecce’s away-game profile: BTTS occurred in 0% of their away matches, while the team kept a clean sheet in 50% of them. The visitors average only 1.0 goals scored away from home and failed to score in 50% of their matches, whereas Milan, despite a poor average of 3.0 goals conceded at home, currently have a better defensive run, conceding 1.2 goals per game across their last five appearances. Milan should have favorable conditions to score, as Lecce conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches, with opponents recording an xG of 2.02. The visitors’ chances are not zero, as reflected by their average xG of 1.23 and 4 shots on target per game; however, Lecce’s low BTTS rate and just 20% BTTS results in their last five matches provide stronger support for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
AC Milan scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Lecce conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. Chance quality also points toward goals: Milan averaged 1.52 xG, whereas Lecce allowed opponents 2.02 xG. Although the visitors scored just 1.0 goal per game in their last five outings, Milan conceded an average of 1.2 goals, making a Lecce goal a realistic prospect. Milan’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five fixtures, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.03 goals. However, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.95 goals provides a substantial safety margin even with less efficient finishing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Milan win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Lecce were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5. Milan scored just 0.2 goals per match before the break in this sample, but averaged 2.0 goals after half-time and won the second half in 80% of their matches. Lecce managed only 0.4 goals per match after the break, and failed to score in the second half in 80% of their recent matches. Milan’s quality advantage grows in the closing stages, also due to their stronger current form: the hosts are unbeaten in their last 5 matches and average 2.2 goals, while Lecce have lost 60% of their matches and concede 1.8 goals per game.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AC Milan | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AC Milan is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.5 pts / match - Lecce
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AC Milan is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.25 goals / match - Lecce
AC Milan is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.75 goals / match - Lecce
AC Milan scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Lecce keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
Lecce scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AC Milan
Over / Under - Lecce
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lecce is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / match - AC Milan · 1 pts / match - Lecce
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AC Milan - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Lecce - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 25% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 25% | 50% |
| No goal | 75% | 75% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AC Milan
Lecce
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| AC Milan | Liga | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 2.90 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 59% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 53% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 20% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 25% | 63% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 88% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AC Milan 2 - 0 - 0 Lecce. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AC Milan vs Lecce?
The Serie A match finished AC Milan 3:0 Lecce. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Lecce?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AC Milan won 2, Lecce won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Lecce?
AC Milan score 1.75 goals per game on average and Lecce 1.25. The Serie A average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 75% of AC Milan's matches and 25% of Lecce's.
What form are AC Milan and Lecce in?
Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 2-2-0 record (2.00 points per game) and Lecce 2-0-2 (1.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Lecce?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AC Milan vs Lecce: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.