Admira vs First Vienna: match statistics

Admira sit 12th in the table, but in their only home match they created a high volume of chances: 19 shots, 6 on target and an average of 2.25 xG. However, the hosts’ major issue is extremely poor finishing, as despite this potential they have failed to score at home, while managing just 5 goals in their last five matches. First Vienna are higher in the standings, in 9th place, and have the better recent record: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored across their last five games. The visitors looked very poor away from home, though, losing their only match on the road so far, conceding as many as 4 goals, failing to keep a clean sheet and allowing opponents 1.30 xG. Admira’s edge in chance creation and First Vienna’s weak away defence slightly support a potential breakthrough for the hosts, although their inefficiency in front of goal clearly increases the risk of a draw or a scoring response from the visitors.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened by the fact that First Vienna recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their away matches so far, while averaging 1.8 goals scored across their last five games overall. Admira are highly effective at home, averaging 3.0 goals with an xG of 1.98 and 6.5 shots on target per match, whereas First Vienna concede as many as 4.0 goals on average away from home. The visitors should nevertheless create chances, as Admira have averaged 1.44 xG conceded over their last five matches, and none of their opponents have recorded an away game without scoring. The risk to the pick comes from Admira keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches and their low xG against of 0.90; however, the combined attacking profile of both teams slightly favours BTTS - Yes.

Admira score an average of 3.0 goals at home, while First Vienna concede as many as 4.0 goals per away match, clearly favoring at least two goals. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.98 and 6.5 shots on target per game, compared with the 1.30 xG conceded on average by the visitors. In First Vienna’s last five matches, games featured an average of 3.2 goals, while both teams surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 100% of available season matches. Admira’s lower scoring rate over their last five appearances, at 1.0 goal per match, limits confidence in higher lines, but Over 1.5 remains the strongest signal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Admira win at full-time (X/1). In their last five matches, Admira scored only 0.2 goals before the break and were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases, while First Vienna averaged 1.0 goal before half-time and were level at the break in 40% of their matches. After the interval, however, the home side shows a clear advantage: season data indicate that Admira score an average of 2.0 goals in second halves, while First Vienna concede as many as 3.0. Admira also have stronger match metrics, with an xG of 1.98 compared with the opponents’ 1.04, averaging 16 shots to their opponents’ 8 and 6.5 shots on target compared with 4.0. The visitors have lost all of their away matches included in the dataset and concede an average of 4.0 goals on the road, so even if the opening stages are cautious or evenly balanced, a turnaround in favour of the home side after half-time is the more likely outcome.