ADT vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

ADT have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 goals, while FC Cajamarca have recorded 2 wins and scored 9. However, home advantage favours the hosts: they create chances worth an average xG of 1.68 at home, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.75 away. ADT average 15.93 shots per match on home soil, compared with Cajamarca’s 10.62 shots away from home, boosting the hosts’ chances of exploiting their opponents’ defensive frailties. The visitors concede an average of 1.69 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, although ADT also have defensive issues after conceding 14 goals in their last 5 matches. An ADT win is therefore the most likely outcome, but Cajamarca’s recent scoring form means the hosts cannot be considered clear favourites.

ADT saw both teams score in 86% of its matches, while FC Cajamarca did so in 62%—both figures above the league average of 59%. Neither team kept a clean sheet this season, with ADT conceding an average of 2.14 goals per match and FC Cajamarca 1.69. In their last five matches, both teams conceded even more—2.8 and 2.6 goals per match, respectively—which increases the chances of the opposition finding the net. FC Cajamarca has recently averaged 1.8 goals scored and recorded BTTS in each of its last five matches, although its season-long rate of matches without scoring stands at 38%. This latter figure limits confidence in the prediction, but given how weak both defences have been, goals at both ends remain the more likely outcome.

ADT matches average 3.85 goals, while FC Cajamarca games average 3.00—both figures are above the league average of 2.78. At least two goals were scored in 93% of ADT matches and 77% of the visitors’ matches, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick. The teams concede an average of 2.14 and 1.69 goals respectively, and neither has kept a clean sheet in the season statistics provided. The open style of play is also reflected in their last five matches: the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% of ADT games and 100% of FC Cajamarca games. Higher lines are less reliable, however, particularly as Over 3.5 landed in only 23% of the visitors’ league matches.

The strongest signal is FC Cajamarca’s advantage before half-time: ADT were trailing at the break in all of their last 5 matches, while the visitors were leading in 2 of 5. During that period, ADT scored no first-half goals and conceded an average of 1.6, while FC Cajamarca averaged 1.6 goals before the break. The visitors’ recent full-match form also points to them holding on to their lead: they scored an average of 1.8 goals per match, while ADT conceded 2.8. A turnaround remains possible, as the hosts averaged 0.8 goals after half-time in their last 5 matches, while the visitors conceded 1.4 over that span. Even so, the visitors’ strong first-half advantage and ADT’s poor defensive record make FC Cajamarca leading at both half-time and full-time the most likely single scenario in the HT/FT market.