Cyprus - First DivisionStadio Stelios KyriakidesData current as of 21 October 2026

AEL vs Aris: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

AEL vs Aris: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

AEL play Aris in First Division (Cyprus). The match date is 25 October 2026. Venue: Stadio Stelios Kyriakides.

Current form

AEL: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Aris: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.

Goal statistics

AEL scores 1.67 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Aris scores 1.17 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.93 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: AEL 33%, Aris 67%. Over 2.5: AEL 50%, Aris 50%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 64%.

xG, shots and style

Aris has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.64. AEL: 13.2 shots per match, Aris: 13.2.

Match halves

AEL: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.33. Aris: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.

Goals by minute

AEL: 46-60 (4 goals). Aris: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

First Division: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 64%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(2.60)
(3.28)
(2.52)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.67Goals scored / match1.17
AELAris
1.33Goals conceded / match1.33
AELAris
49%Average possession49%
AELAris
6.5Shots on target / match5.5
AELAris

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.17Shots per match13.17
AELAris
6.5Shots on target5.5
AELAris
12.7%Shot conversion8.9%
AELAris
49%Possession49%
AELAris
1.64xG for1.68
AELAris
1.3xG against1.26
AELAris

Shooting quality

AEL: BalancedAris: Balanced
AELAris
Accuracy (shots on target)49%42%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.13
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.260.21

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

AEL is 50% better for: last-5 form.

2.4 pts / match - AEL · 1.6 pts / match - Aris

AEL
LWWWW
Season result split
83% W0% D17% L
Season (W-D-L)
5-0-1
2.50 pts / match · goal difference +2
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-0-1
2.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Last 5 at home
3-0-0
WWW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.67Opponent xG: 1.38BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Aris
LWDWD
Season result split
33% W50% D17% L
Season (W-D-L)
2-3-1
1.50 pts / match · goal difference -1
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-2-1
1.60 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Last 5 away
2-0-0
WW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.2xG: 1.62Opponent xG: 1.25BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AEL is 43% better for: goals scored per match.

1.67 goals / match - AEL · 1.17 goals / match - Aris

AEL scoring profile: very strong

AEL scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Aris keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).

Aris scoring profile: strong

Aris scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while AEL keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).

10Goals scored (season)7
AELAris
8Goals conceded (season)8
AELAris
3Average goals in match2.5
AELAris
8Goals scored (last 5)5
AELAris
8Goals conceded (last 5)6
AELAris

How often they score at least...

83%1 goal83%
AELAris
83%2 goals33%
AELAris
0%3 goals0%
AELAris
0%4 goals0%
AELAris

How often they concede at least...

50%1 goal67%
AELAris
17%2 goals33%
AELAris
17%3 goals17%
AELAris
17%4 goals17%
AELAris

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

0%BTTS at half-time17%
AELAris
0%BTTS in both halves17%
AELAris
33%Scored in both halves33%
AELAris

BTTS and goal count

33%Min. 3 goals and BTTS50%
AELAris
17%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
AELAris
40%BTTS - last 560%
AELAris

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

50%Min. 1 goal before half-time67%
AELAris
17%Min. 2 goals before half-time17%
AELAris
0%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%
AELAris

2nd half

100%Min. 1 goal after half-time83%
AELAris
83%Min. 2 goals after half-time50%
AELAris
33%Min. 3 goals after half-time17%
AELAris

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AEL - half-time state
33% leading50% draw17% trailing
Aris - half-time state
33% leading50% draw17% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.5Points per match (1st half)1.5
AELAris
0.33Goals scored (1st half)0.5
AELAris
0.33Goals conceded (1st half)0.33
AELAris
0.67Average goals (1st half)0.83
AELAris
83%Clean sheet before half-time67%
AELAris
67%No goal before half-time50%
AELAris

After half-time (2nd half)

2.17Points per match (2nd half)1
AELAris
1.33Goals scored (2nd half)0.67
AELAris
1Goals conceded (2nd half)1
AELAris
2.33Average goals (2nd half)1.67
AELAris
50%Clean sheet after half-time33%
AELAris
17%No goal after half-time33%
AELAris

AEL - second-half results

67% W17% D17% L
9
Half-time points
2
Half-time goals
0
Goal difference (1st half)
13
Second-half points
+2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.50
PPG before half-time
Lead holding252%

Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.7

Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Aris - second-half results

17% W50% D33% L
9
Half-time points
3
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
6
Second-half points
-2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.50
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.7

Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

AEL - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.202.00
Goals scored / match0.21.4
Goals conceded / match0.41.2
Average goals in match0.62.6
1 goal40%100%
2 goals20%100%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet80%40%
No goal80%20%
Goal difference-1+1
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 20% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 1
Aris - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.601.00
Goals scored / match0.40.6
Goals conceded / match0.21.0
Average goals in match0.61.6
1 goal60%80%
2 goals0%40%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet80%40%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference+1-2
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

AEL
ScoredConceded
0
1
0-15
0
1
16-30
2
0
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

Aris
ScoredConceded
1
1
0-15
1
0
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.75
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.5 : 1.3
Estimated goal split
home : away
94%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
50%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+27%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
69%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

AEL

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.34
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
0.00
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+4.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.03
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.03
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
113%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
92%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.10
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+1.0
Late goals
20% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.
20%

Aris

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.42
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.58
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+1.2 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.51
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.07
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
81%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
90%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.10
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
29% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 14% come in the first quarter-hour.
29%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).

Teams vs league

AELLigaAris
Average goals in match• 3.002.93▼ 2.50
Both teams scored▼ 33%60%▲ 67%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 50%64%▼ 50%
Clean sheets▲ 50%26%▲ 33%
Goal before half-time▼ 50%71%▼ 67%
Goal after half-time▲ 100%83%• 83%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.93
Average goals per match
60%
Both teams scored
64%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
26%
Clean sheets
1.48
Home goals / match
1.45
Away goals / match
+2%
Home attack advantage
+2%
Home defence advantage
+5%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
71%
1 goal
36%
2 goals
12%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
83%
1 goal
57%
2 goals
21%
3 goals
7%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Recent meetings (2): AEL 1 - 0 - 1 Aris. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.

AEL
2 : 1
Aris
Aris
4 : 0
AEL

FAQ

When do AEL and Aris play?

AEL face Aris on 25 October 2026 in First Division at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between AEL and Aris?

In the last 2 head-to-head matches AEL won 1, Aris won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before AEL vs Aris?

AEL score 1.67 goals per game on average and Aris 1.17. The First Division average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 33% of AEL's matches and 67% of Aris's.

What form are AEL and Aris in?

Over the last 5 games AEL have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Aris 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEL vs Aris?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.