AF Elbasani vs Vllaznia Shkodër: match statistics

AF Elbasani have a slightly better record over their last five matches, picking up 6 points compared with Vllaznia Shkodër’s 4. The hosts have won 1 of their last five games and drawn as many as 3, while the visitors have suffered 3 defeats during the same period. Vllaznia have scored more goals across their last five outings, 6 compared with 4, but they have also conceded as many as 12, twice as many as Elbasani. The hosts’ defence, which has allowed 6 goals in five matches, looks significantly more solid and could take advantage of their opponents’ problems at the back. After one league match, both teams remain level on points, but Elbasani sit 5th while Vllaznia are 8th, so the slight home advantage points to a victory for the hosts.

The signal for goals from both sides is primarily driven by recent form: BTTS occurred in 60% of Elbasani’s matches and as many as 80% of Vllaznia’s. In their last five appearances, the visitors averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.4, while the hosts recorded averages of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.38 for Elbasani and 1.67 for Vllaznia, with xGA at 1.59 and 1.61 respectively. Elbasani have not kept a clean sheet in the current season data, while Vllaznia have a particularly vulnerable defence; therefore, the most likely scenario is for both teams to score at least once. The low league-wide BTTS average of 40% and Elbasani’s tally of just 0.8 goals in their last five matches increase the risk to the pick, but the current indicators for both teams still slightly favour BTTS - Yes.

Data from the last five matches indicates an average of 2.0 goals in Elbasani games and as many as 3.6 goals in Vllaznia games, with Vllaznia conceding 2.4 goals per match during this period. Vllaznia average 1.2 goals scored, while Elbasani average only 0.8; however, the hosts create chances worth 1.38 xG, whereas their opponents allow an average of 1.61 xG. Both teams also regularly feature in games where both sides score: this rate stands at 60% and 80%, respectively. Over 2.5 is a more balanced option, as only 40% of Elbasani’s last five matches went over this line, compared with 100% for Vllaznia. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.65 goals and the visitors’ weak defence clearly reduce the likelihood of a one-goal-or-fewer scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Elbasani victory at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches. The opening stages were also low-scoring: Elbasani averaged 0.2 goals before the break, while Vllaznia also averaged 0.2, and the home side kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of those matches. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, as Vllaznia conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the second half across their last five appearances, compared with just 0.6 goals conceded by Elbasani. The visitors lost 60% of their last five matches and allowed opponents to score an average of 2.4 goals per game, while Elbasani averaged 1.2 points per match compared with Vllaznia's 0.8. A full-time draw remains a highly realistic alternative, but home advantage and the visitors' weaker post-break defensive record slightly strengthen the X/1 option.