Al Ahed vs Safa: match statistics
Al Ahed vs Safa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Al Ahed played Safa in Lebanese Premier League (Lebanon). The match was played on 18 May 2026. Venue: Al Ahed Stadium. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Al Ahed: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Safa: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Al Ahed scores 1.53 and concedes 0.94 goals per match. Safa scores 1.18 and concedes 0.82. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Al Ahed 29%, Safa 29%. Over 2.5: Al Ahed 47%, Safa 24%. League level: BTTS 32%, Over 2.5 40%.
xG, shots and style
Al Ahed has higher xG: 1.38 vs 0.99. Al Ahed: 9.9 shots per match, Safa: 5.5.
Match halves
Al Ahed: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.82. Safa: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Al Ahed: 46-60 (7 goals). Safa: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Lebanese Premier League: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 32%, Over 2.5 40%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win as Safa are in better form: they have scored 7 goals and won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 points per match over that period, while Al Ahed scored only 3 goals and average 1.6 points per match in their last 5. Away, Safa average 1.5 goals scored and concede 1.0, whereas Al Ahed at home average 1.0 scored and 1.43 conceded, which favors the visitors. Al Ahed do generate higher home xG (1.39 vs 0.98 for Safa), but have a lower shooting efficiency (conversion 10% vs 13% for Safa) and lower expected returns from chances. Additionally Safa control on average 62% possession away versus 51% for Al Ahed and have a better recent run (4 wins in 5 vs 2 wins for Al Ahed), while the hosts have a negative home goal differential (-3). On this basis I estimate probabilities of roughly 50% for Safa, 25% for a draw and 25% for Al Ahed.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No because Al Ahed have a very strong home defence: 60% clean sheets and only 0.4 goals conceded per game this season, with a home BTTS rate of just 10%. Safa shows better away offensive output (1.5 goals per game) and a season BTTS of 50%, but their BTTS frequency in the last 5 matches dropped to 20% and they scored 7 goals in those 5 games (1.4 avg). xG comparison indicates similar offensive potential: Al Ahed 1.10 xG vs Safa 0.98 xG, about 2.08 xG combined, implying a moderate number of chances. Crucially, Al Ahed concede only 0.4 goals in reality despite an xG against of 1.19, which suggests an ability to neutralize chances and lowers the probability of BTTS. Considering Al Ahed’s 60% clean sheets vs Safa’s 50% BTTS and a league BTTS of 31%, I assess BTTS at 25% and No BTTS at 75%, therefore I recommend the 'No' selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG and average goals breakdown points to a moderately low-scoring match: Al Ahed’s attacking xG is 1.10, Safa’s attacking xG is 0.98; after accounting for xG against (Safa 0.85, Al Ahed 1.19) we get expected values of ~0.98 goals for the home side and ~1.09 for the away side, total ~2.07. Al Ahed concedes only 0.4 goals per game on average and has a 60% clean sheet rate, while Safa scores 1.5 goals/match but concedes 1.0, giving a defensive edge to the hosts. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are low: 10% for Al Ahed and 33% for Safa, and Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches for both teams is 20%, reinforcing the case for Under 2.5. The model estimates roughly a 35% chance for Over 2.5 (Under ~65%) with an approximately 61% probability for Over 1.5, so the strongest and most valuable signal from the data is Under 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Al Ahed are level at the break in 60% of their matches, while Safa are level at half-time in 83% of their games, so a draw after 45 minutes is common. Nevertheless, Al Ahed hold the advantage over the full 90 minutes: 60% wins this season and 1.9 points per game versus Safa’s 33% and 1.17 points; additionally, xG 1.1 vs 0.98 and more shots 7.3 to 5.75 (on target 3.6 vs 3.0) indicate greater threat from the home side. After the break Al Ahed average 1.7 points and win 50% of second halves, and with a season-long 60% clean sheet rate and only 10% of matches featuring BTTS, they are likely to decide the match in their favour after a half-time draw. Therefore X/1 is given the highest weight (35%), with a significant share for HT draws (X/X 30%) and smaller shares for other configurations.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Al Ahed | Safa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 49% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Ahed is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Al Ahed · 1.8 pts / match - Safa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Ahed is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Al Ahed · 1.18 goals / match - Safa
Safa is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.94 goals / match - Al Ahed · 0.82 goals / match - Safa
Al Ahed scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Safa keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
Safa scores in 59% of matches (10 of 17 matches), while Al Ahed keeps a clean sheet in 53% (9 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Al Ahed
Over / Under - Safa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Al Ahed is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.82 pts / match - Al Ahed · 1.53 pts / match - Safa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Al Ahed - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 65%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Safa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Al Ahed
Safa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Lebanese Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Al Ahed | Liga | Safa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.47 | 2.23 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 32% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 40% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 53% | 41% | ▼ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 65% | 56% | ▼ 35% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 72% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Al Ahed 1 - 0 - 0 Safa. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Al Ahed vs Safa?
The Lebanese Premier League match finished Al Ahed 1:2 Safa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Al Ahed vs Safa?
Al Ahed score 1.53 goals per game on average and Safa 1.18. The Lebanese Premier League average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Al Ahed's matches and 29% of Safa's.
What form are Al Ahed and Safa in?
Over the last 5 games Al Ahed have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Safa 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Al Ahed vs Safa?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Al Ahed vs Safa: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.