Al Hazm vs Al Taawon: match statistics

Al Taawon (away) are the favorites: they have 15 wins this season versus Al Hazm’s 10 and have scored 59 goals versus 36. The visitors’ key advantage is efficiency and goal difference — Al Taawon score an average of 1.88 goals away with a conversion rate of 19% and concede 1.25 per match, while the hosts at home average 1.25 goals with a 10% conversion and concede 1.88. Although Al Hazm have higher home xG (1.45 vs the visitors’ xG 1.18) and more shots (13 vs 9.94), their 31% of matches without a goal highlights finishing issues. In the last 5 matches Al Taawon have scored 9 goals versus Al Hazm’s 5 and have higher points per game over the last 5 (1.4 vs 1.0), confirming the current advantage. Therefore I assess probabilities at 55% for Al Taawon, 20% for Al Hazm and 25% for a draw.

Both teams show high BTTS rates: Al Hazm 65% and Al Taawon 69%, versus a league average BTTS of 59%, which historically supports a Goal/Goal scenario. In the last 5 matches Al Taawon had BTTS in 80% of games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 on average, while Al Hazm in their last 5 had BTTS 60% and averaged 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded; these differences indicate a clearer attacking form from the visitors. xG analysis shows Al Hazm generates xG 1.43 against Al Taawon’s average xG conceded 1.68, and Al Taawon creates xG 1.18 with Al Hazm conceding xG 1.25 — statistically both sides produce chances that enable goals. Additionally, Al Hazm averages 13.24 shots (3.94 on target) and Al Taawon 9.94 shots (4.38 on target) with shot conversion rates of 13% and 19%, and low clean sheet percentages of 24% and 13% further increase the BTTS likelihood. Considering the combined signal (season BTTS 65%/69%, last5 60%/80%, xG and shot dynamics), I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No Goal.

Forecast based on average xG: Al Hazm has xG 1.43, Al Taawon 1.18, and factoring xG against (Al Taawon concedes 1.68, Al Hazm concedes 1.25) yields an expected 1.56 goals for the home side and 1.22 for the away side, total 2.78. Seasonal rates show Over 1.5 occurred in 88% of Al Hazm matches and 75% of Al Taawon matches (average ~82%), and the league registers 3.02 goals per game, which supports Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, the home team has Over 2.5 in 47% of matches, the away team in 63% (average 55%), and in the last 5 matches both teams had Over 2.5 in 60% of cases, so the signal for Over 2.5 is moderate (≈56%). High BTTS: 65% and 69% and 3.94 and 4.38 shots on target with conversion 13% vs 19% suggest both teams create chances and will try to hit the target, increasing the probability of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5), Over 2.5 has moderate support (56%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (≈37%).

Al Taawon led at half-time in 50% of their matches this season, while Al Hazm did so in only 29%, and first-half draws occurred in roughly 31–35% of games, giving the visitors a clear advantage before the interval. At half-time Al Taawon average 1.00 goal versus 0.53 for Al Hazm, but after the break the home side score on average 1.18 goals compared to 0.88 for the visitors, so Al Hazm have a stronger second half and the potential for a turnaround. Over the full match the favorites remain the visitors: they win 50% of their fixtures this season versus 41% for the hosts and have higher goals-per-game (1.88 vs 1.71), as well as better shot conversion (19% conversion compared to 13% for Hazm), which supports maintaining a lead. Additionally Al Hazm create more chances (on average 13.24 shots and xG 1.43 versus 9.94 shots and xG 1.18 for Al Taawon), so a comeback is realistic but not strong enough to outweigh the visitors’ statistical advantage. On this basis the most likely scenario is Al Taawon leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2) — 29%, with notable alternatives X/2 (13%) and 2/X (9%).