Al-Jndal vs Al Akhdoud: match statistics

Al-Jndal have home advantage: they are unbeaten in three home matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals, while Al Akhdoud average 1.25 goals away from home. The hosts convert 19% of their shots at home, compared with 10% for the visitors away, although both teams average a similar number of shots per match: 12 and 12.5, respectively. The visitors have failed to win any of their last five matches and conceded 12 goals in that run; the hosts scored 8 and conceded 7 over the same period. The hosts’ average home xG is 1.51, while the visitors allow chances worth 1.84 xG away from home, further boosting Al-Jndal’s chances of scoring. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the hosts have drawn two of their three home matches, but their finishing and their opponents’ recent defensive frailty point towards a home win.

In the last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of games, which is a strong indication in favor of BTTS - Yes. Al-Jndal averaged 1.6 goals during this period, while Al Akhdoud averaged 1.2, with both teams consistently posing a threat. The visitors’ defence is a particularly favorable factor, having conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with an xG of 1.89 for chances allowed. The hosts conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period, while the visitors’ xG stands at 1.55, giving Al Akhdoud a genuine chance of scoring. Although the visitors kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, their current defensive form and the 80% BTTS rate across both teams’ last 5 games point to BTTS - Yes.

In their last 5 matches, Al-Jndal averaged 1.6 goals, while Al Akhdoud conceded 2.4, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. The visitors should also create opportunities: their average xG is 1.55, while Al-Jndal have kept no clean sheets in any of the home matches considered. In the teams’ last 5 matches, at least 3 goals were scored in 60% of cases, although the league average is just 2.19 goals per match. Therefore, Over 1.5 is a stronger pick than the higher lines: it requires only two goals, and the projected total is 3.05.

A draw at half-time is likely, as Al Akhdoud were level at the break in 3 of their 4 away matches and in 3 of their last 5 games overall. The hosts average 1.0 goal in the first half at home, but the visitors concede just 0.25 goals before half-time away from home, making an early Al-Jndal lead difficult to call. The match could turn around after the break: Al Akhdoud lost the second half in 4 of their last 5 games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals in that period, while Al-Jndal scored an average of 0.8. Across their last 5 matches, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals per game, while the visitors conceded 2.4, making a half-time draw followed by an Al-Jndal win the strongest scenario. Confidence in the pick is tempered, however, by the fact that the hosts have won none of the 2 home matches considered.