Al Nassr vs Al Fateh: match statistics

Both teams have collected 4 points from their last 5 matches, recording a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, meaning that current form does not offer a clear advantage. However, Al Nassr have scored 6 goals during this period—twice as many as Al Fateh’s 3—which points to greater attacking potential for the hosts. Both defenses have been similarly vulnerable, with each side conceding 7 goals in their five matches. Al Fateh sit 5th, while Al Nassr are 13th, but in the absence of complete season data on home and away performances, Al Nassr’s greater attacking efficiency in recent outings, combined with home advantage, slightly shifts the forecast in favor of the hosts. A closely contested match is expected, with a single goal potentially deciding the win for Al Nassr.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected to fail to score—not necessarily a 0-0 draw or a match in which neither team scores. Al Fateh scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, and in 4 of those 5 fixtures there was no Goal/Goal outcome. Al Nassr did concede an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, but their average xG against is just 0.49, suggesting that opponents typically created few high-quality chances. The visitors have an xG of 1.12, but their actual finishing remains poor, while the hosts scored 6 goals during this period. Al Fateh allowed opponents an average of 1.74 xG and conceded 7 goals in five matches, so the most likely scenario is an Al Nassr win to nil, with the visitors failing to score.

Al Nassr’s last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, while Al Fateh’s games averaged 2.0 goals, with both teams recording Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of those matches. Al Fateh scored just 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per game, with an average xG of 1.12; additionally, Al Nassr’s defence restricted opponents to just 0.49 xG per match. The hosts have a favourable attacking matchup, creating 1.32 xG per game, while Al Fateh allows opponents 1.74 xG, although their actual scoring average stands at only 1.2 goals. The projected total of 2.15 goals indicates a realistic chance of two or three goals, but clearly limits the likelihood of a four-goal or higher outcome. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, supported by the visitors’ low scoring efficiency and the moderate frequency of high-scoring games.

Al Nassr show the clearer first-half signal: they led at the break in 50% of their last matches, compared with just 20% for Al Fateh, while the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of their recent games. The hosts conceded an average of only 0.25 goals before the break, whereas Al Fateh scored just 0.2 goals per match in this phase and failed to score before half-time in 80% of their last appearances. After the break, Al Nassr averaged 0.75 goals, compared with 0.4 for their opponents, which still gives the hosts the edge in the battle for the final result. Both teams have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and average 0.8 points per game, so a draw at half-time followed by an Al Nassr victory remains a significant alternative. However, the strongest individual outcome is Al Nassr leading at half-time and holding on to win, namely 1/1.