Al Shabab vs Al Nassr: match statistics
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Al Shabab played Al Nassr in Professional League (Saudi Arabia). The match was played on 7 May 2026. Final score: 2:4.
Current form
Al Shabab: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Al Nassr: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Al Shabab scores 1.27 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Al Nassr scores 2.65 and concedes 0.77. League average: 3.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Al Shabab 60%, Al Nassr 45%. Over 2.5: Al Shabab 40%, Al Nassr 65%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Al Nassr has higher xG: 2.11 vs 1.46. Al Shabab: 13.1 shots per match, Al Nassr: 18.4.
Match halves
Al Shabab: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.70. Al Nassr: half-time lead 61%, second-half goals 1.58.
Goals by minute
Al Shabab: 31-45+ (9 goals). Al Nassr: 76-90+ (27 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Professional League: 3.03 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Al Nassr are clear favorites: they sit 1st in the table versus Al Shabab in 13th and have scored 82 goals and conceded 24 this season, while Al Shabab have 38 scored and 48 conceded. In the last 5 matches the visitors won 4 times and scored 13 goals (2.6 per game), whereas the hosts have 1 win and 7 goals in those five fixtures (1.4 on average). Al Nassr away record shows 2.56 goals scored per game and xG 2.06 with 18.19 shots and 6.38 on target (conversion 14%), while Al Shabab at home average 1.53 goals, xG 1.68 and 14.8 shots with 5.67 on target (conversion 10%). Defensively the visitors have clear advantages: 0.88 goals conceded on average away and 56% clean sheets versus 2.0 conceded by the hosts at home and 27% clean sheets; additionally Al Nassr have not recorded a match without scoring away (0%) vs 7% for Al Shabab. Based on this I assign a 70% probability to an Al Nassr win, 15% to a draw and 15% to an Al Shabab win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick BTTS - Yes (60% vs 40%) — the offensive signal outweighs seasonal clean sheet metrics. Both teams generate many chances: xG 2.17 for Al Shabab and 2.06 for Al Nassr (combined ~4.23 xG), with an average of 7.87 and 6.38 shots on target and conversion rates of 15% vs 14%, which favors goals. Last 5 matches show mixed but telling signs — Al Shabab has BTTS 80% and concedes on average 1.8 goals over five matches, while Al Nassr scores 2.6 and concedes 0.8, so Al Nassr is virtually guaranteed to score and Al Shabab has been leaking goals more often lately. Counterarguments are seasonal stats: seasonal BTTS 47% (Al Shabab) and 44% (Al Nassr) and high clean sheet rates 53% and 56%, and the league BTTS is 57%, indicating the risk that one team may fail to score. Overall, considering the high xG and Al Nassr’s form (82 goals in the season vs 38 for Al Shabab) and Al Shabab’s recent 1.8 goals conceded, I choose 'yes' on BTTS with a probability of 60% vs 40% 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Season-long metrics point to a high goal output: Al Shabab averages 2.73 goals per game, Al Nassr 2.56, with matches finishing Over 1.5 in 80% and 94% of cases respectively. xG corroborates the attacking tempo: xG for Al Shabab is 2.17, for Al Nassr 2.06, with xG against of 0.79 and 0.82 respectively, yielding expected 1.50 xG for the home side and 1.43 xG for the visitors (total 2.93). Additionally, hosts average 7.87 shots on target versus 6.38 for guests, with conversion rates of 15% and 14%, so the real chances of goals are high. Season Over 2.5 rates are 60% (home) and 69% (away), and the league average is 3.02 goals per game, so Over 2.5 has a material probability (~65%). The strongest signal, however, is Over 1.5 (on average ~87% based on 80% and 94%), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5; Over 3.5 is less reliable (~48%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Al Nassr are in excellent form: in their last 5 matches they have won 4 of 5 (80%) and led at the break in 60% of games, with an average of 1.6 goals by half-time. Al Shabab, despite a very strong home season (93% home wins and an average of 2.73 goals scored per game this season), have a weaker recent run (just 1 win in 5, 20%, form 'wdddl') and average 0.8 goals by half-time in that sample. Half-time statistics show both teams often score before the break (HT goals: 20 for the hosts vs 21 for the visitors), but Al Nassr concede only 0.4 goals by half-time in their last 5 compared to 1.0 for Al Shabab, giving the visitors an advantage for the first half. As a result, the strongest signal is Al Nassr to lead at the break and hold the win to full-time (2/2), while a draw at half-time followed by an away turnaround to win at full-time (X/2) remains a realistic scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Al Shabab | Al Nassr | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Al Nassr is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Al Shabab · 2.4 pts / match - Al Nassr
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Al Nassr is 109% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Al Shabab · 2.65 goals / match - Al Nassr
Al Nassr is 108% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - Al Shabab · 0.77 goals / match - Al Nassr
Al Shabab scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Al Nassr keeps a clean sheet in 55% (17 of 31 matches).
Al Nassr scores in 100% of matches (31 of 31 matches), while Al Shabab keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Al Shabab
Over / Under - Al Nassr
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Al Nassr is 148% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.87 pts / match - Al Shabab · 2.16 pts / match - Al Nassr
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Al Shabab - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Al Nassr - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 61% of matches and wins 84%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (27 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +22 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Al Shabab
Al Nassr
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Professional League).
Teams vs league
| Al Shabab | Liga | Al Nassr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.87 | 3.03 | ▲ 3.42 |
| Both teams scored | • 60% | 59% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 56% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | • 23% | 23% | ▲ 55% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 75% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 81% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Al Shabab 0 - 0 - 1 Al Nassr. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
The Professional League match finished Al Shabab 2:4 Al Nassr. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
Al Shabab score 1.27 goals per game on average and Al Nassr 2.65. The Professional League average is 3.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Al Shabab's matches and 45% of Al Nassr's.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Nassr in?
Over the last 5 games Al Shabab have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Al Nassr 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.