Al Tadhamon vs Al Qadsia: match statistics

Al Qadsia are 3rd in the table, while Al Tadhamon sit 12th. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, whereas the hosts have lost 4 and drawn once. Across those five games, Al Tadhamon conceded 13 goals, compared with just 2 for Al Qadsia, highlighting the visitors’ defensive strength. Away from home, Al Qadsia average 2 goals per match, while Al Tadhamon have yet to score at home and concede an average of 2 goals. Although the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.78, compared with Al Qadsia’s away xG of 1.55, they have so far failed to turn those chances into goals. They also allow opponents chances worth an xG of 1.99, while Al Qadsia’s away figure is 0.98. This gap in finishing and defensive performance makes an away win the most likely outcome.

Al Qadsia have a strong chance of scoring: they average 2.0 goals away from home, while Al Tadhamon have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches. The greater uncertainty is whether the hosts will score: they have managed just 4 goals in their last 5 games, while the visitors have conceded only 2 over the same period. Al Tadhamon have failed to score in 50% of their home matches, although their average of 1.5 goals scored at home and Al Qadsia’s lack of away clean sheets call for caution. The teams’ records over their last 5 matches are mixed — BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of the hosts’ games, compared with 20% of the visitors’ — so the slight lean is towards BTTS - No, meaning at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 result.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: all of Al Qadsia’s matches so far have gone over this line, compared with 50% of Al Tadhamon’s. The visitors average 2.0 goals and 7.0 shots on target per match, while the hosts have conceded an average of 2.6 goals across their last five matches. However, caution is warranted with higher lines, as Al Qadsia have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, and neither team has recorded a match with Over 3.5 goals so far. The 2.70-goal forecast therefore gives Over 1.5 a clearer edge than the riskier Over 2.5 line.

Al Qadsia have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Al Tadhamon have lost 4 of 5 and conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match, compared with 0.4 conceded by the visitors. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 40% of those matches, while the visitors were never behind; moreover, Al Qadsia kept a first-half clean sheet in 4 of 5 games. The visitors’ attacking advantage is also clear: their average xG is 1.55 compared with the hosts’ 1.34, and they average 7 shots on target against 4.5. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as Al Qadsia were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches. However, Al Tadhamon’s poor form and the visitors’ advantage after the interval make Al Qadsia to lead at the break and hold on for the win the strongest HT/FT pick (2/2).