Alajuelense vs San Carlos: match statistics

Alajuelense are on an excellent run of five consecutive victories, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 3 during that stretch, while San Carlos have scored 3 and conceded 8. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far, averaging 2 goals, 6.5 shots on target and an xG of 1.91 per game. San Carlos have lost both away fixtures, conceding an average of 2 goals in each and scoring just 0.5 themselves; they failed to score in 50% of their matches away from home. Although the visitors average 64% possession, they convert it into just 3.5 shots on target and a 3% shooting efficiency, significantly less effectively than Alajuelense, who have a 14% conversion rate. The difference in current form, the hosts’ consistency in creating chances and San Carlos’ defensive weaknesses strongly point to an Alajuelense victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Alajuelense kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while San Carlos failed to score in 50% of games. The visitors average just 0.5 goals per season and 0.6 goals over their last five appearances, despite averaging 14.5 shots. Alajuelense are in excellent form, with five consecutive wins, scoring 2.2 goals per match and conceding only 0.6 during this run, which supports a home win to nil scenario. Alajuelense’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 0%, while the recent figures of 60% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors are not sufficient to outweigh San Carlos’ attacking problems. The visitors’ xG of 1.50 over their last five matches gives them a chance to score, but the hosts’ defensive xG conceded of 1.11 and their current efficiency suggest that at least one team will fail to score.

Alajuelense are in excellent form, averaging 2.2 goals scored and conceding just 0.6 across their last five matches, while San Carlos have scored 0.6 goals and allowed opponents to score 1.6. The hosts should create more chances, as confirmed by their xG of 1.79 over the last five matches, compared with San Carlos’ average xG conceded of 1.16. At the same time, Alajuelense’s defence allowed just 1.11 xG, so the visitors have little statistical basis for significantly increasing the combined goal tally. Across the season, neither team has recorded a match with more than 3 goals, and both have seen 100% of their matches finish below 3.5 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5: the hosts’ superiority could earn them a win, but the data profile supports a total of 2-3 goals more strongly than an open, high-scoring game with four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Alajuelense win in the match, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five games, while San Carlos recorded the same outcome in 75%. Alajuelense are nevertheless in excellent form: they have won their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding just 0.6, whereas San Carlos average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The hosts’ advantage increases particularly after the break, when they score an average of 1.6 goals, compared with just 0.5 for San Carlos; the hosts have also won the second half in each of their last five appearances. San Carlos have lost 60% of their last five matches and, based on the current away data, concede an average of 2.0 goals per game, which supports an Alajuelense turnaround in the latter stages. This points to the HT/FT selection X/1.