Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Alianza Petrolera played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 30 August 2026. Venue: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Final score: 1:5.
Current form
Alianza Petrolera: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Alianza Petrolera scores 0.71 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 1.93 and concedes 0.83. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Alianza Petrolera 46%, Atlético Nacional 41%. Over 2.5: Alianza Petrolera 33%, Atlético Nacional 66%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.18. Alianza Petrolera: 11.5 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.6.
Match halves
Alianza Petrolera: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.33. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.28.
Goals by minute
Alianza Petrolera: 0-15 (4 goals). Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlético Nacional are in clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 2, while Alianza Petrolera have failed to win any of their last five games, recording 2 draws and 3 defeats. Across the season, the visitors have secured 20 victories and scored 54 goals, compared with just 3 wins and 17 goals for the hosts. Away from home, Atlético Nacional create more danger, averaging 4.88 shots on target per match compared with Alianza’s 3.31 at home, while also enjoying 57% possession against their opponents’ 49%. The hosts score only 0.85 goals per home game and fail to find the net in 31% of such matches, which, combined with the visitors’ highly resilient recent defensive record, limits their chances. A draw remains possible, as Alianza have drawn 54% of their home matches, but the clear edge in quality and current efficiency points towards an Atlético Nacional victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as the seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored is only 42% for Alianza Petrolera and 38% for Atlético Nacional, compared with the league average of 52%. Atlético Nacional have conceded just 0.4 goals per match in their last five fixtures and kept a clean sheet in 4 of 5 cases, while BTTS landed in only 20% of those matches. Although Alianza Petrolera recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, they scored only 1.0 goal per game on average, with an xG of 1.41, which limits confidence in their ability to score against in-form opponents. The hosts also have a seasonal clean-sheet rate of 58% and concede only 0.42 goals per match, so a scenario in which Atlético Nacional fail to breach their defence is also plausible. The most likely outcome therefore remains a match in which at least one team fails to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Alianza Petrolera create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.15 xG and 7.67 shots on target, but have scored only 1.0 goal per game across their last five matches. Atlético Nacional have been in excellent defensive form recently, conceding just 2 goals in their last five appearances, or 0.4 per match. Historically, the 3.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 33% of Alianza’s matches and 13% of Nacional’s, clearly supporting the lower outcome. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their matches, while the hosts have done so in 58%, so despite Alianza’s attacking potential, a wide-open game with four goals is difficult to expect. The projected total of 2.40 goals indicates an advantage for the Under 3.5 goals bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal comes from Atlético Nacional’s current form: the team has won 4 of its last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded. Over the same period, Alianza Petrolera failed to win any of its 5 games, scoring only 0.8 goals per match and allowing opponents 1.4. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, while the hosts have not once gone into half-time with a lead, averaging just 0.4 goals before the break compared with Atlético’s 1.4. The hosts’ historical home record is very strong, with a 92% win rate and an average of 2.75 goals, but their current loss of form clearly weakens this argument. The most likely scenario is therefore Atlético leading at half-time and holding that advantage through to full-time, although Alianza’s strong seasonal quality leaves a significant possibility of a draw or a turnaround.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Alianza Petrolera | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 500% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Alianza Petrolera · 2.4 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 172% better for: goals scored per match.
0.71 goals / match - Alianza Petrolera · 1.93 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 71% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Alianza Petrolera · 0.83 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Alianza Petrolera scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 72% of matches (21 of 29 matches), while Alianza Petrolera keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Alianza Petrolera
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.08 pts / match - Alianza Petrolera · 1.41 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Alianza Petrolera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 72%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Alianza Petrolera
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Alianza Petrolera | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.13 | 2.49 | ▲ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 53% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 45% | ▲ 66% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 28% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 67% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 79% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Alianza Petrolera 1 - 0 - 2 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Alianza Petrolera 1:5 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Petrolera and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Alianza Petrolera won 1, Atlético Nacional won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional?
Alianza Petrolera score 0.71 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 1.93. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Alianza Petrolera's matches and 41% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Alianza Petrolera and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Alianza Petrolera have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional?
The statistical background for Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.