Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas: match statistics

Alianza Petrolera have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Rionegro Águilas have managed just 1 win and suffered 3 defeats over the same period. The hosts create slightly better chances at home: their average xG is 1,30, compared with 1,05 for the visitors away from home, although both teams score fewer than a goal per match in these conditions—0,88 and 0,86, respectively. Alianza may also benefit from the visitors’ defensive record: they keep a clean sheet in just 14% of away matches and concede chances with an average xG of 1,49. However, a home win is far from certain: Alianza concede an average of 1,50 goals at home, and 44% of their home matches end in a draw. Their stronger recent form and slight edge in chance quality favour Alianza, but the high draw rate calls for caution.

Both teams scoring is slightly more likely: Alianza have recorded BTTS in 69% of their matches, compared with 50% for Rionegro. The hosts average 1.38 goals from an xG of 1.52, while the visitors concede 1.36 goals per match, which supports the prospect of an Alianza goal. Rionegro’s chances are boosted by the fact that Alianza conceded an average of 1.8 goals across their last 5 matches, while the visitors posted an xG of 1.44 over that period. However, this is not a strong pick, as Rionegro have failed to score in 36% of their matches, and BTTS has landed in only 20% of their last 5 games.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this line was not exceeded in 75% of Alianza Petrolera’s matches and 86% of Rionegro Águilas’ fixtures. The hosts have a higher average attacking xG, 1.52 compared with the visitors’ 1.05, but the combined forecast of 2.48 goals still points away from a four-goal game. Alianza average 1.38 goals scored, while Rionegro average 0.86; in addition, the visitors have failed to score in 36% of their matches, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. The 2.5-goal line is less clear-cut, as it was surpassed in 63% of the hosts’ matches but only 29% of the visitors’ fixtures, so the pick is Under 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: the home side were level at the break in 44% of matches and the visitors in 57%, having scored an average of 0.25 and 0.36 goals in the first half, respectively. Alianza’s advantage is more pronounced after the break: they score an average of 1.13 goals compared with Rionegro’s 0.50, and win the second half in 50% of matches, versus 28% for the visitors. The case for a home win at full time is also supported by a higher average xG (1.52 to 1.05) and more shots on target per match (4.44 to 2.86). The X/1 scenario therefore combines a frequent draw at half-time with Alianza’s greater attacking threat in the latter part of the match.