Alianza vs Águila: match statistics

Alianza is a narrow favorite based on season-long metrics — they have scored 76 goals versus Águila’s 59, and at home they average 1.68 goals per game with an 18% conversion rate, while Águila averages only 1.05 goals per away game with an 11% conversion. The hosts also generate slightly more quality chances: 4.32 shots on target per game and 56% possession versus Águila’s 3.95 shots on target and 51% possession. However, in the last 5 matches the edge is with Águila — the visitors won 3 of 5 and average 2 points per game, whereas Alianza has 1 win and averages 1 point; additionally Alianza conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches compared to just 3 conceded by Águila. In terms of chance quality xG is almost level: Alianza at home has 1.39 xG and Águila away 1.38 xG, which suggests the difference may come down to finishing (18% vs 11%) or day form. Considering Alianza’s advantage in season offensive stats and the 1.68 home goals average, but also their recent defensive weakness (9 conceded in 5), I rate the outcome in favor of the hosts with moderate probability: 55% Alianza, 20% draw and 25% Águila win.

Alianza has a seasonal BTTS of 65% versus Águila’s 33%, with the league average at 54%, indicating the hosts more frequently play matches with Goal/Goal (65% vs 33%). In the last 5 games Alianza had BTTS 60% and conceded an average of 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5 matches), while Águila’s recent BTTS is 20% and they conceded an average of 0.6 goals (3 goals in 5), but Águila generated an average xG of 1.85 in those five matches versus Alianza’s 1.16, indicating an improvement in their offense. Seasonally Alianza scores 1.61 goals with xG 1.53 and produces more shots on target (avg. 4.59 per match) with a conversion rate of 16%, whereas Águila scores 1.05 with xG 1.38 and a 11% conversion, so the hosts are the more realistic source of goals. Considering Alianza regularly concedes (1.26 on the season and 1.8 in the last 5) and that Águila has generated significant xG (1.85) and scored 6 goals in their last 5, I see a stronger signal for BTTS - Yes and estimate the probability of both teams scoring at around 68% versus 32% for No Goal.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.91 (Alianza 1.53 vs Águila 1.38), indicating a higher-than-minimal goal potential. Seasonally Alianza records 83% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Águila 62% — an average of 72.5% — while the league average is 2.7 goals per match, which further supports Over 1.5. Alianza averages 10.14 shots and 4.59 on target with a 16% conversion rate, Águila 9.48 shots and 3.95 on target with an 11% conversion, so both sides create chances that result in goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.91 gives roughly a 79% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), 56% for Over 2.5 and 33% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Alianza has a significant advantage at half-time: they led at the break in 50% of matches and scored an average of 1.05 goals in the first half, whereas Águila led at the break in 24% of fixtures and averaged 0.33 first-half goals. The gap is also visible in first-half goals: Alianza scored 38 goals before the break versus Águila’s 16, which strongly favors the home side as the leader after the opening 45 minutes. Full-match metrics and seasonal averages also lean toward Alianza: the home side’s xG is 1.53 and their season scoring average is 1.61 (Alianza) versus 1.05 (Águila), so the hosts have a higher expected goal return. There is, however, a warning signal — Águila are in good recent form (won 60% of their last five matches versus Alianza’s 20%) and have netted 9 goals in minutes 61–75, while Alianza have only 4 in that period, indicating a tendency for the away side to score in the second half. Taking Alianza’s advantage at the break (50% vs 24%) and superior xG/goal averages into account, I rate the strongest HT/FT signal as 1/1 and estimate its probability at around 33%, with 1/X ≈16% and 1/2 ≈5%.