Alianza vs INCA-Aruba: match statistics

Alianza have a clear home advantage: they have won 67% of their home matches, remain unbeaten there, and concede just 0.67 goals per game on average. The hosts create more offensively, averaging 13.33 shots and 4.67 shots on target per match, compared with 6.8 and 2.8 respectively for INCA-Aruba away from home. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances: Alianza’s average home xG stands at 1.82, while the visitors allow an xG of 2.01 on the road. INCA-Aruba score just 0.6 goals per away match, fail to score in 40% of such games, and have lost 80% of their away fixtures. The visitors have improved their recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, but a run of three defeats in their last five away appearances still strongly favours Alianza.

The “No” outcome holds a slight edge, as Alianza score an average of just 0.83 goals per match and INCA-Aruba 0.60, with the percentage of matches in which they fail to score standing at 33% and 40%, respectively. The season-long BTTS figures for both teams are no more than moderate: 50% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors, compared with the league average of 48%. Alianza should have good opportunities to score, as their opponents concede 2.20 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 20% of their appearances, but the visitors’ attack is clearly weaker, recording 2.8 shots on target per match compared with the hosts’ 5.0. The last five matches provide some support for the visitors, who averaged 1.2 goals and recorded BTTS in 60% of their games; however, Alianza had BTTS in only 40% of matches over the same period. The visitors’ xG of 1.32, compared with Alianza’s xG against of 1.80, indicates a goal-scoring chance for INCA-Aruba, but the year-round inefficiency of both sides more strongly supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. In other words, BTTS - No is preferred; this does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Alianza averages 1.51 xG, while INCA-Aruba allows an average of 2.01 xG, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The hosts average 5.0 shots on target per match compared with 2.8 for the visitors, while the away side’s defense concedes as many as 2.2 goals per game. In their last five matches, both teams have played above their full-season averages: Alianza scored 1.4 goals and INCA-Aruba 1.2, with total xG of 1.61 and 1.32, respectively. The 1.5 line was covered in 67% of Alianza’s matches and 80% of INCA-Aruba’s, making Over 1.5 the strongest data-backed option; Over 2.5 remains more evenly balanced.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Alianza win, as the hosts have not yet been leading at the break, while as many as 80% of their last five matches were level at half-time. Alianza average just 0.4 goals before the break, compared with 0.2 for INCA-Aruba, which clearly supports a cautious start and a level score after 45 minutes. After the interval, the hosts perform more effectively: they average 0.83 goals, while the visitors concede as many as 1.8 goals and lost 80% of their matches in the second half. Alianza’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.51 compared with the opponents’ 1.08, while the hosts average 5.0 shots on target per match against 2.8 for INCA-Aruba.