Alianza vs Inter: match statistics

Alianza are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning two and drawing three, while Inter have recorded four draws and one defeat. The hosts scored 10 goals in that span compared with the visitors’ 5, although they also conceded more: 8 to Inter’s 6. At home, Alianza average 1.71 goals and generate an xG of 1.73, while Inter average 1.29 goals and 1.52 xG away from home. Another factor in the hosts’ favour is that they have not lost at home, while Inter’s away xG conceded stands at 1.91, suggesting their opponents are creating high-quality chances. However, the risk of a draw remains high: 57% of Alianza’s home matches have ended level, and Inter have drawn four of their last five games.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 100% of Alianza’s games and 80% of Inter’s, a strong signal in favour of BTTS - Yes. During this period, Alianza averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Inter averaged 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The attacking potential of both sides is supported by their similar average xG figures: 1.51 for Alianza and 1.52 for Inter. However, caution is warranted: BTTS landed in 57% of Alianza’s matches across the season, but in just 29% of Inter’s, with Inter keeping a clean sheet in 57% of its games. The current run of matches with goals at both ends outweighs this season-long signal, making BTTS - Yes marginally more likely.

At least 2 goals were scored in 71% of matches involving the two teams, providing a stronger signal than the data for higher lines. Alianza averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in each of those games. Inter have averaged 1.0 goal recently, but their xG was 1.53, almost identical to Alianza’s 1.50, giving the visitors a solid basis to find the net as well. The projection of 1.55 goals for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors points towards Over 1.5 goals, although season-long Over 2.5 goals rates of 29% for Alianza and 57% for Inter limit confidence in backing the higher line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Alianza were level at the break in 57% of their matches, compared with 43% for Inter; across the teams’ last five matches, the figure was 60%. The hosts average 0.43 goals scored and 0.29 conceded before half-time, which also points to a closely contested score after 45 minutes. The case for the draw holding is strengthened by Alianza having drawn 71% of their matches so far and recording three draws in their last five, while Inter recorded four. Although Alianza have recently averaged 2.0 goals per match compared with Inter’s 1.0, the visitors concede just 0.29 goals per match after half-time, so breaking down their defence is far from certain. Therefore, a draw at half-time and full-time has a slightly stronger case than a home win after a closely fought first half.