Alloa Athletic vs Peterhead: match statistics

Alloa Athletic have the stronger home record: they average 1.5 goals per match and are yet to concede at home, with xG against of just 0.70. Peterhead score only 0.5 goals per away game, concede 1.5, and have a goal difference of -2. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, with average xG of 1.67 compared with the visitors’ 1.25, while averaging 6 shots on target to Peterhead’s 4. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Alloa have conceded only 2 goals during that period, compared with 6 allowed by Peterhead. The hosts’ greater efficiency at home and extremely solid defence point towards an Alloa win, although their 50% draw rate at home increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Peterhead’s limited scoring consistency: the visitors average just 0.5 goals per league match and failed to score in 50% of their games. Alloa Athletic have conceded only 0.4 goals per game over their last five matches, just 2 goals in total, which clearly makes it difficult for the visitors to exploit their attacking potential. BTTS - Yes occurred in only 20% of Alloa’s last five matches, while none of Peterhead’s matches at this level so far have seen both teams score. Although the visitors’ xG over their last five games stands at 1.42, and the hosts have not yet kept a clean sheet in the competition, Peterhead’s finishing remains poor, converting just 5% of their shots into goals. A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is therefore more likely than both sides finding the net.

The strongest signal is the Under 3.5 goals line, as both teams have had 100% of their league matches finish with a maximum of three goals. Alloa have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while their average xG against stands at 1.00, limiting Peterhead’s attacking potential. Peterhead have scored 1.6 goals per game in their last five appearances, but the hosts have conceded just 2 goals in total during this period. On the other hand, the xG figures for both teams—1.29 for Alloa and 1.42 for Peterhead—point to a realistic chance of around two goals rather than an open, high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.17 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Alloa victory, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. Alloa averaged only 0.4 goals before half-time, compared with Peterhead’s 1.0, but both teams kept a clean sheet during this period in 80% and 100% of matches, respectively. After the break, the hosts are clearly more consistent: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Peterhead conceded as many as 1.2 goals. In addition, Alloa won the second half in 60% of those matches and did not lose any, whereas the visitors won the second half only 20% of the time, further strengthening the X/1 HT/FT option.