Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Madryn: match statistics

Almirante Brown are significantly stronger at home: they have won 62% of their home matches, concede just 0.46 goals per game on average and keep a clean sheet in 62% of their outings. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.48 compared with Deportivo Madryn’s 1.02 away from home, while opponents allow their rivals an xG of 1.80. However, Deportivo Madryn arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches, with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw and only 2 goals conceded. Away from home, the visitors win just 31% of their matches and draw as many as 46%, so their current form primarily increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Almirante Brown’s edge in defensive organization and control of play at home, with 53% average possession, gives the hosts a slightly higher chance of securing victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by the teams’ current defensive form: Almirante Brown have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, while Deportivo Madryn have conceded just 2, averaging 0.6 and 0.4 goals per game respectively. During the same period, BTTS occurred in only 20% of matches for each team, well below their seasonal rate of 54% and the league average of 40%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches, compared with 31% for the visitors, while Deportivo Madryn fail to score in 38% of their games, increasing the risk of a one-sided result. Almirante Brown have an edge in chance creation, averaging 3.69 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 2.85, while their seasonal defence concedes just 0.77 goals per match. Although the visitors have scored 11 goals in their last five appearances, the combination of a low recent BTTS rate and very solid defences favours a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Almirante Brown concede only 0.77 goals per home match, while Deportivo Madryn score an average of 1.23 goals away from home, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. In their last five matches, both teams have been particularly solid defensively: the hosts conceded 3 goals, while the visitors conceded just 2, with both teams scoring in only 20% of matches. The 3.5-goal line was surpassed in just 15% of Almirante Brown’s matches and 38% of Deportivo Madryn’s, while the league-wide average is only 1.95 goals. The hosts generate an average of 1.29 xG and the visitors 1.02 xG, so the projected total of 2.25 goals clearly supports a bet on Under 3.5.

Almirante Brown have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 54% of their matches, score an average of 1.69 goals and concede just 0.77, while Deportivo Madryn win 31% of their away games. The hosts were leading at the break in 7 of 13 matches (54%), compared with just 3 of 13 for the visitors (23%), which strengthens the case for a home lead already at half-time. Almirante Brown’s defence is particularly effective early on, keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 77% of their appearances and conceding an average of only 0.23 goals in the first half. After the interval, the hosts still maintain a positive goal balance, scoring an average of 0.92 goals and conceding 0.54, while Deportivo Madryn concede an average of 0.77 goals in this period. However, the visitors’ current form represents a significant risk, as they have won 80% of their last five matches and scored 2.2 goals per game. Nevertheless, the most likely scenario remains an Almirante Brown lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory: HT/FT 1/1.