Alverca vs Casa Pia: match statistics

Alverca are 10th and Casa Pia 16th, but the last five matches favour the visitors: they have won three, compared with two for the hosts. Alverca’s strength remains their effectiveness at home, averaging 1 goal per match and failing to score in only 20% of games, while Casa Pia average 0.8 goals away and draw a blank in 60% of matches. The hosts should also have chances to score, as Casa Pia concede 1.84 xG away from home, compared with Alverca’s 1.19 xG at home. The visitors concede just 0.8 goals per match on the road and keep a clean sheet in 40% of games, so I rate Alverca’s chances slightly higher, although a draw or a Casa Pia win remains a realistic outcome.

BTTS has occurred in only 20% of matches involving either team so far, and in each team’s last 5 matches it has also stood at 20%, clearly supporting a BTTS - No pick. Alverca average 0.2 goals at home and have failed to score in 80% of those matches, while Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their away games. The visitors average 0.8 goals away from home and failed to score in 60% of matches, although the hosts concede as many as 3.0 goals per game at home. The attacking potential reflected in xG figures of 1.11 for Alverca and 1.15 for Casa Pia makes the prediction less certain, but the teams’ scoring records to date suggest that it is more likely at least one side will fail to score.

In their last 5 matches, Alverca averaged 2.0 total goals and Casa Pia 1.8, with only 20% of games in each case going over 2.5 goals. Casa Pia did not play a match with at least 4 goals in the analyzed seasonal sample, while this occurred in 40% of Alverca’s matches. Although Alverca conceded an average of 3.0 goals, that figure fell to 1.0 across their last 5 appearances, while Casa Pia conceded 0.8 goals over the same period. Both teams have recently scored 1.0 goal per match, pointing to a total closer to 2 than 4 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick, although Alverca’s previously high average of goals conceded remains a significant risk.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Casa Pia were level at the break in 3 of their 5 matches, while both teams averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half. The visitors kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their matches, further limiting Alverca’s chances of taking an early lead. After the break, the advantage shifts towards Casa Pia: Alverca conceded an average of 2.0 goals and failed to score, while the visitors averaged 0.6 goals. The visitors’ win is also supported by the full-time results: Alverca lost all 5 matches in the sample, whereas Casa Pia won 2 of 5. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a Casa Pia win at full-time is the strongest signal, although the visitors leading at the break also remains a realistic possibility.