Amal Tiznit vs Difaâ El Jadida: match statistics

Amal Tiznit hold a clear advantage over the last five matches: they recorded 2 wins and 1 defeat, while Difaâ El Jadida failed to win and lost 3 games. The visitors conceded 14 goals in that period, compared with 4 by the hosts, highlighting the biggest gap between the teams. Amal created chances worth an average of 1.80 xG at home and registered 6 shots on target per match, so they should have opportunities to exploit their opponents’ defensive weaknesses. However, confidence in the pick is tempered by the fact that the hosts lost their only listed home match 1:3, while the average value of the chances they conceded at home was 1.76 xG. The visitors’ away statistics do not provide a meaningful basis for comparison, but their record over the last five matches points to an Amal win.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Difaâ El Jadida’s games and 40% of Amal Tiznit’s, giving the BTTS - Yes scenario a moderate edge. The visitors averaged 1.2 goals per match during this period, while the hosts conceded 0.8, making a Difaâ El Jadida goal a realistic prospect. On the other hand, Amal averaged only 0.8 goals, but Difaâ El Jadida conceded as many as 2.8 per match, increasing the likelihood of a goal from the hosts. Both teams’ expected goals in their last 5 matches were similar, at 1.15 and 1.08 xG, so despite Amal’s lower scoring output, it is more likely that both teams will find the net.

In their last 5 matches, Amal Tiznit scored and conceded an average of 0.8 goals per game, and only 20% of those matches went over 2.5 goals. Difaâ El Jadida conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game over that period, but the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.15 xG, which limits confidence in a high-scoring game. The visitors averaged 1.2 goals scored, against an average of 1.08 xG, so their attacking output also offers no strong indication that there will be at least 4 goals. The projected total of 2.5 goals points to Under 3.5 goals, a stronger pick than the 2.5 line, particularly as the visitors’ recent results suggest a risk of 3 goals.

The strongest signal is Difaâ El Jadida’s poor recent form: the visitors have not won any of their last 5 matches, losing 3 and conceding an average of 2.8 goals, while Amal Tiznit have won 2 of their 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. The chances of the hosts taking the lead at the break increase because the visitors were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.0 goals before the break. The 1/1 pick therefore has the strongest overall case, although a half-time draw is also plausible: Amal were level at half-time in 75% of their recent matches. Caution is warranted, as in both of Amal’s home matches included in the data, they were trailing at half-time and ultimately lost; consequently, the edge for 1/1 over X/1 remains small.