Amarante vs Benfica II: match statistics

Benfica II sit 5th, while Amarante are only 17th, and the visitors remain unbeaten after three matches this season (2 wins and a draw). Away from home, Benfica II have won every game so far, averaging 2 goals from 18 shots and 6 shots on target per match. Amarante have yet to score at home despite averaging 13 shots and an xG of 1.49, and they lost their only home fixture. The hosts do have a better xG against opponents, at 0.88 compared with Benfica II’s 1.84, but the visitors’ attacking efficiency and a run of 3 wins in their last 5 matches point towards an away victory. The likelihood of a draw is increased by the fact that both teams concede an average of 1 goal per match in their respective home and away settings, but Benfica II’s superiority in chance creation and finishing is clear.

Benfica II has a very strong goalscoring profile away from home: they average 2.0 goals, 6.0 shots on target per match, and an xG of 1.82. Amarante have not been shut out in any home match, while their opponents have failed to keep a single clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.0 goal with an xG against of 1.84. Both teams also record high expected goals conceded, as Amarante allow opponents an xG of 1.87, which should increase the visitors’ chances of scoring. Caution is warranted based on the last five matches, in which BTTS was recorded in only 40% for Amarante and 60% for Benfica II, while the hosts conceded just 0.8 goals per match. Nevertheless, the combination of both sides scoring regularly and Benfica II’s limited ability to keep clean sheets slightly favours the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The model points to approximately 2.50 goals, as the average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.16 for Amarante and 1.42 for Benfica II, compared with 1.62 and 1.29 xG conceded by their opponents, respectively. Over the same period, Amarante averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Benfica II scored 1.2 and conceded 1.0, which does not suggest a high-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals occurred in just 40% of the last five matches for each team, while the league average is only 2.19 goals per match. Benfica II create more chances, averaging 6.0 shots on target compared with 3.0 for the hosts, but their current goal output is clearly below their seasonal average of 2.0 goals per match. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: both teams have seen 100% of their matches this season finish below this line, while the current goal data supports a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

Benfica II has a clearly stronger profile in terms of the final result: they have won 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game and recording 6.0 shots on target, compared with Amarante’s 1.0 goal and 3.0 shots on target. The visitors also create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.82 versus 1.33 for the hosts, although both teams allow their opponents a high xG, at 1.84 and 1.87 respectively. A draw at half-time is the most realistic starting scenario, as Benfica II were level at the break in 50% of their recent matches, while Amarante did so in 40%; in the visitors’ current sample, this figure is as high as 100%. After the break, Benfica II score an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Amarante manage only 0.5. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an away win at the final whistle (X/2).