Amarante vs União de Leiria: match statistics

União de Leiria sit 5th, while Amarante are only 15th, and the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals in total. Over the same period, Amarante have recorded just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring only 3 goals. Away from home, Leiria average 2.0 goals per match with a very high 22% shot conversion rate, whereas the hosts score just 0.5 goals per game at home and have failed to score in 50% of their appearances. Amarante do create higher-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.59 compared to Leiria’s 1.29 away from home, but they convert them exceptionally poorly, scoring from only 4% of their shots. The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home and have kept no clean sheets, so an Amarante goal is a realistic possibility. However, Leiria’s superior current form and significantly greater efficiency make them the stronger pick to win.

The BTTS scenario is not the more likely outcome, as Amarante have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches, while União de Leiria have not recorded a single game without conceding. The hosts have scored just 0.6 goals per match over their last 5 games and both teams scored in only 40% of those matches, which limits the likelihood of an effective response. Leiria boast a strong attack, averaging 2.0 goals and 5.5 shots on target per match, so the most realistic outcome is for the visitors to score. At the same time, Amarante concede just 0.67 goals per match this season, and their defence may contain the opposition, while the hosts’ recent attacking struggles favour a result with only one team scoring. The combined BTTS rates for the two sides stand at 33% and 50%, respectively, compared with the league average of 41%, further supporting the pick that at least one team will fail to score.

The 2.46-goal projection is based on the combined xG figures: Amarante create an average of 1.26 xG, while União de Leiria record 1.29, although the hosts have scored just 0.6 goals per game across their last five matches. The visitors are enjoying a strong run of three consecutive wins and have averaged 1.6 goals over their last five outings, but Amarante have conceded only 0.67 goals per match at home so far and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games. The 2.5 line is finely balanced, as 40% of each team’s last five matches ended with at least three goals. A clearer edge therefore lies with Under 3.5 goals: all of Amarante’s matches so far have stayed below this line, while the projected total of 2.46 leaves a solid margin for a maximum of three goals.

União de Leiria are showing significantly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals, while Amarante have lost 3 of 5 and scored only 0.6 goals per game. The visitors also have the advantage before the break, having led in 40% of their last five matches and scored an average of 0.8 goals, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of their games, conceding an average of 1.0 goal. Across the season, Leiria average 2.0 goals per match with a 22% shooting efficiency, compared with Amarante’s 1.33 goals and 13%. Although the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, their recent defence has conceded an average of 1.2 goals, with an xG against of 1.65. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which the visitors lead at the break and maintain their winning result after the final whistle.