Amarante vs União Santarém: match statistics

Amarante holds a clear advantage in season-long metrics: 15 wins versus União Santarém’s 8, 37 goals scored against 26, and a home goal difference of +6 compared to the visitors’ -3 on the road. Recent form and efficiency over the last 5 matches favor the hosts — Amarante have scored 8 goals and remain unbeaten in five (2 wins, 3 draws), averaging 1.8 points per match, while União Santarém have 4 goals, 0 wins and 0.6 points per match. In attack the home side average 1.33 goals per home game with 8.27 shots and 16% conversion, whereas the visitors average 0.87 goals away with 7.4 shots and 12% conversion (shots on target 3.00 vs 3.13). Defensively Amarante concede 0.93 goals per home game and keep 40% clean sheets, while União Santarém concede 1.07 away, have 27% clean sheets and fail to score in 40% of away matches (vs 13% for the hosts). xG also supports the hosts — Amarante have 1.09 xG at home versus 1.05 xG for the visitors away, and União Santarém allow 1.39 xG against on average versus 1.14 for Amarante, which points toward an Amarante victory.

The last 5 matches provide a strong signal for BTTS: Amarante has BTTS in 60% of its last 5, and União Santarém in 80%, yielding a 70% average. Seasonally values are more moderate — BTTS is 53% for hosts and 47% for visitors against a league average of 48%. Both teams rarely keep clean sheets — 20% (Amarante) and 27% (União Santarém), meaning they concede in approximately 80% and 73% of matches, and additionally failed to score in 33% and 40% of season games. xG and shots confirm offensive balance: Amarante has xG for 1.11 vs xG against 1.21 and on average 3.33 shots on target; União Santarém has xG for 1.05 vs xG against 1.39 and 3.13 shots on target, which suggests both teams create chances and concede goals. Considering the strong last-5 signal (70% BTTS average), low clean-sheet percentages and xG against above 1.2 for both sides, I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 68% (Yes) vs 32% (No).

Based on xG: Amarante has xG_for 1.11, União Santarém 1.05; accounting for opponent xG (1.39 against the away side and 1.21 against the home side) I obtain an expected 1.25 goals for the home team and 1.13 for the away team, totaling 2.38 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.38 yields roughly a 69% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 42% for Over 2.5 and around 22% for Over 3.5—so Over 1.5 is reasonably justified while Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 are less likely. Season data confirm moderate goal activity: Over 1.5 occurred in 60% of Amarante’s matches and 67% of União’s, but Over 2.5 only in 27% and 33% and Over 3.5 in merely 7% for both teams, which strengthens the case for Under 3.5. Amarante have scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 avg) and are in good form; União Santarém have 4 goals in their last 5 (0.8 avg) and worse form, therefore my primary signal is Under 3.5 (approx. 78% probability), while acknowledging moderate support for Over 1.5 (~69%).

Amarante have a slight advantage in HT statistics: the hosts led at the break in 5 matches (33% of the season), while União Santarém led in 4 (27%), and half-time draws occurred in 40% of the hosts' matches and 53% of the guests' matches. In the last 5 games Amarante showed better form – their record is W D W D D (2 wins, 3 draws) with an average of 1.6 goals and 1.8 points per game, whereas the visitors have L L D D D and only 0.8 goals and 0.6 points per game. xG also favors the hosts: xG for Amarante is 1.11 versus 1.05 for União Santarém, while the visitors' defense concedes 1.39 xG compared to 1.21 against the hosts, suggesting greater susceptibility of the visitors to conceding chances. After the break the hosts score more often in the last 5 matches (on average 0.8 second-half goals versus 0.4 for the guests), and both teams' matches have Over 0.5 in the second half in 80% of cases, so the scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead is likely. For these reasons the strongest signal is Amarante leading at the break and winning at full-time (HT/FT = 1/1).